(NEXSTAR) – A La Niña winter is still in the cards for the U.S., the Climate Prediction Center said in an updated forecast Thursday.
The Center, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), said the phenomenon is favored to form between now and December, and stick around through early 2025.
La Niña’s effects typically reach peak strength in winter, when it brings wet, cool weather to the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, the southern half of the U.S. tends to be warmer and drier.
And while El Niño often suppresses snow across most of the U.S., La Niña is very different.
NOAA meteorologist Tom Di Liberto recently reexamined snowfall trends during La Niña winters and found they tend to be “banner years” for snow in the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rocky Mountains. The Great Lakes region and parts of New England also tend to see above-average snow when a La Niña pattern is in place, Di Liberto said.
The areas that get more average snowfall in an La Niña winter are shaded in blue on the map below, while areas that see less snow are shaded in brown.
As seen on the map above, the opposite is true for the mountainous areas of the West and Appalachia. Even though La Niña can bring more precipitation to the Ohio Valley, it also can keep the area warmer, making it more likely to see rain than snow. NOAA’s winter predictions seem to confirm that will be the case again this year, with the region expected to see warmer-than-average weather through February.
The mid-Atlantic area is more hit or miss. While some La Niña winters had above-average snow, most have seen below-average snowfall.
To get an even better idea of what we can expect this year, Di Liberto also took a look at the impact of just weak La Niñas – like we’re expecting to see this year.
The pattern wasn’t that different, he found, with a few exceptions.
“The north-central U.S. including the Dakotas and Minnesota had an even snowier signal during weak La Niñas than the average of all La Niñas. Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest wasn’t as snowy as compared to all La Niña events, and snowfall was actually well-below average (not above-average like in the all-La Niña event case) just over the border in southwestern Canada.”
Bad news for snow fans in Virginia, Maryland and D.C., Di Liberto said: “every single weak La Niña winter had below-average snow.”
Models predict a “weak and a short duration La Niña,” the Climate Prediction Center said, so the map above is a better guide for those looking for snowfall predictions.
But trends are never guarantees, and there are plenty of other forces at play here other than La Niña. Climate change, for example, is causing widespread decline in the amount of snow over most of the U.S. A freak snowstorm can also always pop up and defy the odds.