Sunday’s late afternoon games disappointed despite what looked to be a promising five-game slate.
The two potential Super Bowl previews didn’t live up to the hype as the Buffalo Bills punished the Detroit Lions and the Philadelphia Eagles cruised against the Pittsburgh Steelers. But we did gain plenty of intrigue when it comes to the No. 1 seed in both conferences. The Lions (12–2) and Eagles (12–2) are now tied atop the NFC standings, with Detroit holding the tiebreaker. And the Bills (11–3) remain two games behind the Kansas City Chiefs (13–1), but control the head-to-head tiebreaker with three games left in the regular season.
That could come into play after Patrick Mahomes sustained a high ankle sprain Sunday. Kansas City avoided a worst-case scenario as their star quarterback was deemed week-to-week, but it still puts his availability going forward in doubt. Chiefs coach Andy Reid said Mahomes is dealing with soreness, and Mahomes said he would have gone back in if it were a playoff game.
The Chiefs might continue to play it safe with Mahomes’s ankle injury for now because the playoffs are still a month away. This won’t be an easy decision, though, with the Bills still within striking distance thanks to their statement victory in Detroit.
Even the intriguing matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers turned into a rout after Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans picked apart a defense that might have been overrated. For a while, it seemed the Indianapolis Colts were going to give us something to talk about in the late games, but the Denver Broncos took control in the second half of their matchup to get one step closer to ending their eight-year postseason drought.
Here’s what we learned from the not-so-exciting games in Week 15 that nevertheless shook up the playoff standings.
Lions no longer mighty after Josh Allen exposes defensive issues
We didn’t receive the Super Bowl preview we were promised in Detroit because Josh Allen and his high-scoring offense turned it into a one-sided affair for three-and-half quarters. The Lions did make a late rally, but the Bills came away with the ball on the last onside attempt to seal the 48–42 victory.
Maybe the football public mislabeled this Week 15 matchup because there might have been only one championship contender at Ford Field. Sure, that could be somewhat of a reach and an overreaction to one bad game for the Lions, but it’s fair to at least say their defensive injuries are concerning. Defensive standout Alim McNeill was carted off the field with a knee injury, possibly adding to Detroit’s total of 11 defensive players on injured reserve.
For weeks, the Lions made it work despite the lack of depth on the defensive side. But injuries caught up to them against possibly the best offense in the NFL. Allen, the heavy favorite for MVP, guided the Bills to three touchdowns on their first three drives and jumped to a 35–14 advantage in the third quarter. Allen went 23-of-34 for 362 yards and two touchdowns, and added 11 carries for 68 yards and two scores.
Last week, I was critical of the Bills’ defensive lapses and head-scratching coaching decisions in their loss to the Los Angeles Rams. But Allen and his red-hot offense might be enough to overcome those two weaknesses, especially with what they showed in Detroit. Buffalo has scored at least 30 points in eight consecutive games, which tied a single-season NFL record.
I’ll try my best not to overreact to one game, but the Bills deserve plenty of credit for quickly bouncing back from the loss in Los Angeles. Allen seems determined to get to the Super Bowl and not allow the defense or coach Sean McDermott to get in the way. As for the Lions, they should still be called Super Bowl contenders, but it might be better for them to prioritize health than to outlast the Eagles for the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
The Lions also have to deal with the Minnesota Vikings for the NFC North title. And the conference is loaded with sleeper contenders, including the Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay Packers, Rams and Buccaneers. The Lions are no longer mighty and the NFC is wide open.
Mayfield, Evans let us know Chargers’ D is overrated
Evans put himself in strong position to continue his 1,000-yard receiving streak after punishing a Chargers’ defense that many considered to be one of the best in the league.
Mayfield and Evans took control of the 40–17 victory after making an emphasis in the second half to push the ball downfield—they connected for a 57-yard touchdown early in the third quarter to erase a seven-point deficit and later had a 35-yard touchdown pass to give the Bucs a 13-point advantage. Tampa Bay scored 30 unanswered points, lighting up the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL.
Evans finished with nine catches for 159 yards and one touchdown. He now has a strong shot of reaching 1,000 receiving yards in all 11 of his NFL seasons, which didn’t seem feasible after Evans missed four consecutive games due to a hamstring injury. The future Hall of Fame wideout has 749 receiving yards with three games left in the regular season.
More importantly, the Buccaneers (8–6) continue to lead the NFC South and could do plenty of damage in the playoffs. Tampa Bay has a complete roster and resembles the team that stifled the Lions earlier in the season before the wave of injuries led to a four-game losing streak. And this version of the Buccaneers might be better with the emergence of rookie running back Bucky Irving, who recorded 117 rushing yards against the Chargers.
Los Angeles’s strong defensive numbers might have been deceiving because they benefited from an easy schedule before facing better opponents in the past month. The Chargers (8–6) also had issues against the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens, but not even those offensive units did what the Buccaneers did to L.A. on Sunday. Jesse Minter’s defense allowed a season-high in points (40) and yards (506) against a dangerous Mayfield–led Buccaneers team.
Broncos near locks to end postseason drought
The Broncos (9–5) surpassed the Chargers in the AFC standings after weeks of being viewed as the weakest team among the playoff contenders.
Denver is now the sixth seed and well positioned to end its eight-year playoff drought thanks to a come-from-behind 31–13 victory over the Colts. Now might be a good time for the trash-talking Sean Payton to return after many predicted that the Broncos would be in contention for a top-10 draft pick in 2025.
Some even went as far as labeling the Bo Nix first-round draft selection as a reach and potential bust. Many of the Nix doubters were probably itching to say “I told you so” when the rookie quarterback was picked off for a third time vs. the Colts. But Nix (20-of-33, 130 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions) was bailed out by his opportunistic defense, which forced Anthony Richardson and the Colts (6–8) into five turnovers.
Nix will need to play better for the Broncos to become a real threat in the AFC, but Payton has done plenty right in his second season in Denver. Maybe it’s too soon for Payton to return to his trash-talking ways—he did get in trouble last year for his Nathaniel Hackett remarks. But Payton and the Broncos can continue proving the doubters wrong by beating the Chargers on Thursday Night Football and clinching a playoff spot in Week 16.
Chiefs should protect Mahomes, sit him next week
The Chiefs finally dominated an opponent, but they left the 21–7 victory against the Browns with plenty of concern for Mahomes.
Kansas City should sit Mahomes to avoid further injury to his ankle, especially amid a three-game stretch in 10 days. The Chiefs play the Houston Texans in six days and face the Steelers four days after that on Christmas Day. Those aren’t ideal opponents with both teams excelling at rushing the passer. The Chiefs’ offensive line didn’t allow a sack vs. Myles Garrett & Co., but it's been an inconsistent unit throughout the season.
And perhaps Mahomes will be open to the idea. In previous similar situations he usually managed to convince Reid to let him get back in the game. Mahomes said he was O.K. with missing the final minutes vs. the Browns because of the double-digit lead and the confidence he has in his defense to close it out. But he also mentioned that he has trust in backup Carson Wentz.
The Chiefs are still battling with the Bills for the AFC’s No. 1 seed, but they have breathing room in the standings and can afford to have Wentz start at least one game. It might only require Kansas City to generate 20 points against a Houston offense that has struggled most of the season, including in Sunday’s win vs. the Miami Dolphins.
It wouldn’t be surprising, however, to see Mahomes tough it out and play Saturday vs. the Texans. NBC and Netflix would love to see that because they’re broadcasting the Chiefs’ next two games in standalone windows.
As for some positive news for Kansas City, the defense continues to play at a high level to brush off a shaky stretch in November. Kansas City has held its past three opponents (Las Vegas Raiders, Chargers, Browns) to 17 points or fewer. The back-to-back reigning champions might need to heavily lean on their stout defense if Mahomes is forced to miss a game due to his right ankle injury.
Texans’ defense worth highlighting amid dull season for Stroud
The Texans (9–5) might not be total playoff pretenders after all.
Houston finally gave us something to talk about after DeMeco Ryans’s defense forced Tua Tagovailoa into four turnovers during the 20–12 victory against the Dolphins. The Texans clinched a playoff berth and the AFC South title for a second consecutive season.
Once again, C.J. Stroud and his offense struggled to produce points, one of the main reasons why most football pundits haven’t given Houston much consideration when it comes to the playoff landscape. But it’s time to at least acknowledge that the Texans have the kind of defense that could win a playoff game when the wild-card round arrives next month.
Tagovailoa had a lost fumble and three brutal interceptions, including two that were picked off by standout Texans cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., with the latter sealing the one-score game for Houston. Tagovailoa has his flaws, but he usually protects the football, which highlights how good this Houston defense truly is, holding Miami to 224 total yards and 52 rushing yards.
But this game was close because Stroud (18-of-26, 131 yards, two touchdowns) and his offense were worse at moving the ball than Tagovailoa’s unit. The Texans generated just 181 total yards, but they at least produced 10 points off the Miami turnovers. Wide receivers Tank Dell and Nico Collins combined for only 43 receiving yards (Collins did have two touchdowns, though). That type of production likely won’t win a playoff game, even with a home game and a dominant defense.
But the Texans’ offense doesn’t have to be as good as it was last season to put a scare into one of the wild-card teams next month—if the defense continues to do what it did on Sunday. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter combined for 2.5 sacks against the Dolphins. (Houston has 45 total sacks this season.)
As for the Dolphins, this loss likely ends their playoff hopes. They had a late postseason push, but the hole they were in due to Tagovailoa’s injury was too sizable to overcome. It might be a good idea for coach Mike McDaniel and GM Chris Grier to retool the offense because what they have been doing the past three seasons hasn’t led to much success against playoff contenders. Perhaps this is the offseason where the Dolphins begin to wonder whether Tagovailoa is capable of leading a Super Bowl team.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as What We Learned in NFL Week 15: Josh Allen, Bills Expose Lions’ Defensive Issues.