College Football Bowl Projections After Week 12

If you came of age during the late 2000s and early 2010s—the heyday of the BCS and the spread revolution—there is something comforting about seeing Boise State in a comfortable position late in the season.

Entering Saturday, the Broncos were already poised to become the second Group of Five team to appear in the College Football Playoff. With Kansas's upset of BYU, however, Boise State has moved into position for a first-round bye in our weekly bowl projections—and a return to the site of their most famous victory.

The Broncos aren't the only mover and shaker in this week's projections. Arizona State—thanks to a big win over Kansas State—is holding down both the Big 12's and the Pac-12's residual Alamo Bowl slot at the moment, forcing the Sun Devils to play an unusual, unlikely opponent.

Here's our view of the bowl picture as it stands based on the AP Poll and College Football Reference's Simple Rating System, with commentary to follow.

Post-Week 12 Bowl Projections For the 2024 College Football Season

Notable Potential Bowl Matchups

Count Western Kentucky and Texas State (Frisco Bowl) among teams who only overlapped in a particular conference for one year; the Hilltoppers won the two teams' only Sun Belt matchup 38–7 in 2013... North Texas and Louisiana-Lafayette (Cure Bowl) overlapped for a lot longer than that, spending 2001 to '12 together in that same league.

Georgia and Indiana (CFP first round), like Alabama and the Hoosiers, have never met in football... Kudos to the Crimson Tide and Notre Dame (CFP first round) on improving: three weeks ago, these projections had them linking up in the ReliaQuest Bowl... Buffalo and Marshall (Myrtle Beach Bowl) spent six years together in the MAC... Nebraska and TCU (Rate Bowl) have played seven times but never in a bowl game; in every matchup but one the Cornhuskers were ranked 12th or higher... Michigan and Cincinnati (Armed Forces Bowl) have only played once, a 36–14 Wolverines dusting in 2017... Baylor and LSU (Liberty Bowl) played in that game in 1985, as well as the 1963 Bluebonnet Bowl (the Bears won both)... Virginia Tech and Navy (Fenway Bowl) haven't played since 1995... Iowa and Texas A&M (Music City Bowl) haven't played since 1931... In games where both Vanderbilt and Clemson (ReliaQuest Bowl) are major schools, the Commodores lead the all-time series 3-1... Illinois and Tennessee (Citrus Bowl) have never played, while Kansas State and Missouri (Texas Bowl) have played 98 times as major schools.

Ole Miss leads its all-time series against Miami (Peach Bowl) 2-1, but the two teams haven't met since a 20–7 Hurricanes win in 1951... Virginia and Texas Tech (First Responder Bowl) met in the Gator Bowl after the 2007 season, and then a slightly more famous sporting event 12 years later... Northern Illinois and NC State (Bahamas Bowl): the Dave Doeren Bowl!... If Boise State and Oregon (Cotton Bowl) have a bowl matchup in them, the fact that the Ducks won their Sept. 7 matchup 37–34 is worth noting.