If you want wild-card weekend coverage, we have it wall-to-wall. In the takeaways, you’ll find my view on where the New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans and Las Vegas Raiders stand in times of serious transition.
But to kick off this week, I figured we’d get ahead on one of the best weekends in all of sports, with the divisional playoffs only four days away.
Here are my 10 initial thoughts heading into the divisional round:
1. Seven of the eight quarterbacks still alive in the postseason are former first-round picks, and six were taken inside the top 10. Here’s their draft position, from highest to lowest: Matthew Stafford (No. 1), Jared Goff (No. 1), C.J. Stroud (No. 2), Jayden Daniels (No. 2), Josh Allen (No. 7), Patrick Mahomes (No. 10), Lamar Jackson (No. 32), Jalen Hurts (No. 53). The situation a quarterback walks into matters a lot. You can ask Darnold, Baker Mayfield or Geno Smith about that. But so does talent. And, as closely scrutinized as the position is, very few great ones slip through the cracks anymore.
2. There were so many reasons to be excited about the Houston Texans coming into 2024, and then the games started. There were injuries, sophomore slumps, and ups and downs, and it’s a credit to DeMeco Ryans that, through it all, he was able to summon the sort of performance he did from his crew Saturday. As it turns out, even with players such as Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs down for the year, there’s still a wealth of talent in Houston. And there’s one matchup in particular that I believe should make the Kansas City Chiefs a little nervous—and that’s tackles Joe Thuney and Jawaan Taylor going up against Houston edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter.
3. Over on the job interview circuit, the coaches who just finished their wild-card games can now meet virtually with interested teams. Obviously, those who were eliminated can jump in right away. Those who are still routinely working will schedule them for the end of this week when the proverbial hay is in the barn. For example, Philadelphia Eagles OC Kellen Moore will meet with the Jacksonville Jaguars on Friday and the New Orleans Saints on Saturday, before his Sunday game.
4. Conversely, the Detroit Lions and Chiefs got that stuff out of the way—with both teams’ offensive and defensive coordinators taking interviews over the past few days. At this point, it’d feel like an upset if Detroit kept either of its coordinators. It’s a little less certain with Kansas City’s coordinators, though I heard that Tom Brady’s respect for Steve Spagnuolo, having competed against him, could make the Chiefs’ DC one to watch in Las Vegas.
5. The margins in the wild-card round the past two years: 13, 19, 16, 1, 14, 23, 20, 14, 24, 12, 3, 18. That’s two one-possession games of the 12 played. The good news is that last year things tightened up in the divisional round, with three of the four games determined by one possession. What does this indicate? To me, it’s similar to the College Football Playoff—there’s an elite class that’s significantly better than the next tier. This is also reflected in the NFL’s waning parity, with six division winners this year being repeat champions, and all eight having made the playoffs a year ago.
6. Why parity may be dying? The constant emphasis on offense in general, and the passing game in particular—through rules changes and how the game is played coming up now—has magnified the importance of the quarterback. If you have a great one, you have a chance. If you don’t, then you must be perfect just about everywhere else.
7. Want to see a program at work? Look at the speed at which aging vets Bobby Wagner and Zach Ertz are playing in Washington. Those two have a combined 25 seasons of mileage on their legs, and played a ton of snaps during the regular season (Wagner was in on 99% of the defensive snaps, Ertz was in 66.3% on offense), and yet were going strong Sunday night in their season’s 18th game. Which is a tribute to the trainers and strength coaches, and of course Dan Quinn and his staff. “I don’t know if it’s being reenergized, but it’s cool to be around coaches that believe in you, ownership group that believes in you, a city that believes in you,” Wagner told me. “Having that belief and support always brings the best out of people.”
8. Sometimes there is a tendency to oversimplify things before big games. But I don’t think we’d be doing that in underscoring the importance of the Buffalo Bills finding a way to slow down the Baltimore Ravens’ run game Sunday. The first time these two teams played, Baltimore tore through the Buffalo defense for 271 yards on 34 carries (an average of 8 yards per carry). The Bills have ranked in the middle of the league in stopping the run this year. On Sunday, they were able to get the Denver Broncos away from the run by building a lead and making their visitors play catch up. And that wouldn’t be a bad strategy this week against the Ravens (and yes, I know, “start fast” is kind of a dumb key).
9. Another benefit of the bye week: The Lions have David Montgomery, once thought to be down for the year, who is now trending toward playing on Saturday.
10. The Green Bay Packers’ ability to contain the Eagles’ passing game the way they did Sunday was eye-opening, and even more so because Jaire Alexander, who changes the way the Packers can call the defense, wasn’t playing. It’s something to keep an eye on going into the next round, especially given how the Los Angeles Rams can build a lead on Philadelphia.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as 10 Things to Watch Ahead of the NFL Divisional Round .