We made it—all 272 regular season games are in the books and it’s officially the postseason with the curtain dropping after Sunday night’s showdown in Detroit. And we’re covering all of the Week 18 twists, turns and drama over in the Takeaways (with some Black Monday stuff mixed in).

As was the case last year, we’re giving you a quick preview of the 2024 playoffs after conversations with a handful of execs this week. Here is your annual cheat sheet for the postseason, with all 14 teams covered in-depth.

Enjoy …

AFC

1. Kansas City Chiefs (15–2)

Division finish: First, AFC West

Why they’ll win it all: Because of Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones. Because they’re the Chiefs. Because, in the words of one exec, “They have a proven, Super Bowl-contending defense matched with a perennial MVP candidate, and those two factors are a lot for anyone to deal with.” They also seem to have hit their stride in routing the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas.

X-factor: What’s happening at tackle? Jawaan Taylor’s been O.K. but hasn’t lived up to his contract at right tackle. All-everything guard Joe Thuney has filled in admirably at left tackle, but that leaves a hole inside. Meanwhile, veteran D.J. Humphries has been banged up since he arrived, and the growing pains of rookie Kingsley Suamataia and Wanya Morris are what sent the position into flux in the first place. One player who could help manage the issue is Isiah Pacheco, who is dealing with a rib injury and sat out Sunday’s game. Once he’s healthy, he will give the run game some more juice. But one way or the other, how tackle plays out could be a swing factor.

Fatal flaw: The corner situation beyond All-Pro Trent McDuffie. The Chiefs offered the Washington Commanders a third-round pick for Marshon Lattimore, and it’s largely because the loss of L’Jarius Sneed to the Tennessee Titans and the injury to Jaylen Watson made the team’s depth borderline untenable. But Watson’s surprise return to practice last week, which opens the window for a potential playoff return, could change some things.

Under-the-radar player: Noah Gray. Kansas City’s second tight end had modest numbers in the regular season, but other teams could see the trust that’s grown between him and Mahomes throughout the year. “He’s becoming a rising guy for them,” said an exec. “He could be the heir [to Kelce]—he’s reliable, consistent, can block, has the versatility to play in-line or detached. He’s been a good find for them.”

Big unknown: What becomes of the pass game. In camp, the idea was that they’d have Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy to stretch the field, opening up the space underneath for Kelce and Rashee Rice to chew up yards after the catch. Then, Brown and Rice got hurt, and Worthy took time to develop. Now? You’re starting to see it. Brown’s back, Worthy’s grown, Kelce has paced himself, and while Rice won’t return, the team added Juju Smith-Schuster and DeAndre Hopkins to replace them. It’ll be interesting to see how that all comes together for Mahomes.

2. Buffalo Bills (13–4)

Division finish: First, AFC East

Why they’ll win it all: Josh Allen. This is a well-balanced team. They have more answers than they have had in the past and a strong middle class. But, the loss of foundational pieces has made the team a bit more Allen-centric, and the star quarterback has responded to the added responsibility with an MVP-level season. So, the Bills absolutely can win the whole thing. But, Allen has to play really well for it to happen (duh).

X-factor: “Can the offensive skill guys raise their level so Allen doesn’t have to carry the team?” asked one AFC exec. It’s a fair question. Both Dalton Kincaid and James Cook have been really good. Keon Coleman has flashed potential, but asking him to make the leap in the playoffs as a rookie might be a bit much. And that leaves Amari Cooper, who’s been good, not great since the Bills dealt for him in October. If he can level up, and impact the Bills the way he did the Cleveland Browns last year, it’ll change the dynamic for everyone.

Fatal flaw: It could be the secondary. Taron Johnson has been, again, very good at corner. Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford have been just O.K. And at safety, there are moving pieces with Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin’s inconsistencies, and rookie Cole Bishop is now in the mix. While it’s not like the Buffalo defensive backfield is bleeding out, faced with a big-time passing game, all of this could be an issue.

Under-the-radar player: Third-down back Ty Johnson has been a nice complement to Cook and rookie Ray Davis, bringing ability in the passing game allowing the Bills, in spots, to exploit linebackers in coverage (Johnson was huge against the Detroit Lions). So, he could be a match-up player who has a big game out of nowhere.

Big unknown: How does the defense hold up health-wise? The team has had injury trouble and on-field issues at linebacker and safety, which has left the middle of the field a problem. In the big moments—against teams such as the Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens, who attack that area—will the Bills’ defense hold up?

Allen has put on an MVP-worthy season, leading the Bills to a 13–4 record.
Allen has put on an MVP-worthy season, leading the Bills to a 13–4 record. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

3. Baltimore Ravens (12–5)

Division finish: First, AFC North

Why they’ll win it all: They’ve become more difficult to defend on offense, with Lamar Jackson continuing to grow as a passer under second-year coordinator Todd Monken. Young weapons such as Zay Flowers and Isaiah Likely are coming of age, and first-year starters Pat Makari and Roger Rosengarten are starting to shine on the line, too. And, oh yeah, we’ll get to Derrick Henry’s presence in a second. “They’re absolutely multiple on offense now,” said one exec. “And it starts and ends with the quarterback and running back, but they’ve developed a pass game, look at the numbers, look at the tape, you’ll see a big step.”

X-factor: Henry. This isn’t complicated. “If you sit back and try to contain Lamar,” another exec said, “Henry will kill you.” It’s simple math. The threat of Jackson running out of the gun eliminates a defender to block from the box. That makes the supersized tailback even more difficult to deal with—and it’s why, on Christmas Day, Henry got to the second level untouched so often. And then, you’re dealing with all 247 pounds of him with a head of steam. It’s a problem.

Fatal flaw: If the defense regresses to where it was a few weeks back, and the Ravens fall behind, opponents can take Baltimore out of its comfort zone, minimizing the impact of Henry, and forcing their receivers to win in coverage consistently.

Under-the-radar player: DT Travis Jones. He’s a big, heavy, long, physical presence in the middle, who’s become a great contrast to attacking 3-technique Nnamdi Madubuike. For a big guy, he shows relentless effort and has some pass-rush ability to pair with his growing dominance in the run game.

Big unknown: How will the secondary look under the bright lights and big competition of the playoffs? Moving Kyle Hamilton to centerfield has stabilized the defense, allowing the group’s start to control traffic and see the field. But there is a reason why the Ravens were aggressive in pursuing Marshon Lattimore at the deadline. So, will Nate Wiggins’s progress at corner keep going? And how will the depth beyond Wiggins and Marlon Humphrey at corner hold up?

 4. Houston Texans (10–7)

Division finish: First, AFC South

Why they’ll win it all: There’s a version of the Texans out there—one from earlier in the year that doesn’t turn the ball over, where the quarterback is hot and the edge rushers are demons—that is capable of beating anyone. And maybe, even without Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, by leaning into Joe Mixon and throwing off play-action, they can get back there.

X-factor: Mixon, for the above reason, and for his versatility and ability to change the face of the offense. His capability as a receiver is where C.J. Stroud, who’s been streaky this year, can find his rhythm again, at the end of what’s been a step-back season.

Fatal flaw: The interior of the offensive line has been a mess. Laremy Tunsil is still a top-shelf left tackle, and Tytus Howard has been solid on the right side. But things got so bad inside that Howard had to move to guard. Kenyon Green has been a disappointment when he’s been healthy, Shaq Mason has gotten older, center Juice Scruggs has been banged up … and it’s been tough to mask all those issues.

Under-the-radar player: We’ll give you two young defenders who’ve stepped up. Second-year man Henry To’oTo’o has settled in as an instinctive, football-smart, steady run-stopping linebacker. And rookie corner Kamari Lassiter has been a tough, competitive bookend for all-world cover man Derek Stingley Jr.

Big unknown: Can Stroud rediscover the form that led him to one of the greatest rookie seasons a quarterback has ever had? Truth be told, the Texans haven’t had enough answers offensively for what’s been thrown at them—and that’ll likely lead to some bigger-picture questions when the season ends. For now, though, Stroud and Slowik will have to find some solutions.

 5. Los Angeles Chargers (11–6)

Division finish: Second, AFC West

Why they’ll win it all: For a first-year group, the new Chargers regime has a roster that still needs improvement but has found balance. “They can run it, they don’t turn it over, they have a formula that wins,” said one exec. “And then, they have they have [Justin] Herbert.” The Jim Harbaugh formula has, sure enough, carried over, in a tough, physical, resourceful and well-coached team that won’t beat itself, and doesn’t have many holes (even if, again, there are areas where they’ll keep seeking better answers).

X-factor: They have a few. Derwin James Jr. is certainly one—he does a little bit of everything for Jesse Minter’s defense, and finding him is the first job presnap for any quarterback. J.K. Dobbins is another. He juices a power run game that requires a decisive runner, with the linemen in tight splits and moving downhill. And Ladd McConkey, who’s become the team’s No. 1, and a trusted Herbert target in tight spots, would be a third.

Fatal flaw: If James and Khalil Mack are contained and the Chargers are playing James as the big nickel, opponents can run the ball, with Los Angeles’s defense ranking 27th in the league in yards-per-carry allowed.

Under-the-radar player: Coming into the year, Harbaugh and Minter knew the strength of the defense would rely on James and the edge rushers. What they didn’t know is that Tuli Tuipulotu would be on the level of Mack and Joey Bosa—but he’s right there, in the midst of an 8.5-sack season, and at the point where some considered him a bigger threat than Bosa.

Big unknown: Mack and Bosa aren’t what they used to be. But they’re savvy, instinctive and experienced enough to know how to get themselves to the postseason. So, will those two be able to summon a different level of play in the playoffs? Or will their age (Mack’s in Year 11, Bosa’s in Year 9) show?

Herbert and Harbaugh led the Chargers on an impressive 11–6 charge in the coach’s first season in Los Angeles.
Herbert and Harbaugh led the Chargers on an impressive 11–6 charge in the coach’s first season in Los Angeles. | David Butler II-Imagn Images

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10–7)

Division finish: Second, AFC North 

Why they’ll win it all: Because they have a formula and an identity. All year, the Steelers have leaned into a loaded defense, trying to shorten games by running (they’re third, behind only the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore, in rushing attempts) and taking care of the ball (they’re second in the NFL with a plus-15 turnover differential) on offense. The bottom line is that if they can draw opponents into the types of streetfights they want to play, Pittsburgh will have a chance to keep advancing through the AFC bracket.

X-factor: Which version of Russell Wilson do the Steelers get and how do they deploy their quarterbacks accordingly? Is it the Wilson who’s been an assassin with the deep ball? Or is it the guy who struggled through three consecutive double-digit losses, averaging less than six yards per attempt and taking 10 sacks over that time? And if they can’t run the ball to unlock play-action, does Justin Fields enter the equation?

Fatal flaw: Playing from behind could be an issue, forcing Wilson into more of a drop-back game, highlighting the lack of threats at receiver outside of George Pickens, and minimizing the impact of T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and the pass rush. The Steelers trailed in the second half in three of their 10 wins this year, and only trailed in the fourth quarter of one of those games (against Washington). 

Under-the-radar player: Keeanu Benton, Pittsburgh’s load of a nose tackle. “You don’t hear the name much,” said one exec, “but he’s becoming a three-down presence … He’s heavy, strong, plays the run, and has rush value.” And rookie offensive linemen Zach Frazier and Mason McCormick have been incredible, too, with Frazier showing he may be one of the league’s best centers very soon.

Big unknown: What’s the path if the passing game stalls? Again, this is where Fields, who the Steelers continue to believe has a bright future, could see spot duty—because the run threat he presents could open things up in the passing game.

7. Denver Broncos (10–7)

Division finish: Third, AFC West

Why they’ll win it all: Sean Payton has led a team that’s been relatively consistent all year, has set up rookie quarterback Bo Nix to succeed and the defense that Vance Joseph is leading can get after the passer and cover. And the roster is more talented than you think.

X-factor: Riley Moss. Patrick Surtain II is the best corner in football, fully capable of taking whoever is put in front of him out of a game and making an offense play left-handed. And when Moss has been healthy, it’s allowed for Joseph to call more closed coverages (with a single safety high) and pressure. So whether Moss is healthy enough—coming off his knee injury—to play that way could be pivotal for the defense.

Fatal flaw: The Broncos have good skill players, but probably not one who can dig Nix out of a tough spot, despite what Marvin Mims Jr. did at the end of the game in Cincinnati. “They can scheme guys open … I don’t know that they have that true playmaker,” said an exec. “[Courtland] Sutton’s more of a possession guy and Mims and [Troy] Franklin are still kind of hit or miss.”

Under-the-radar player: Zach Allen. Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper have gotten deserved attention for their rise at the edge spots and, again, Surtain is Surtain, but Allen’s ability to disrupt on the interior has created opportunities for everyone. GM George Paton and the front office have gotten a lot of things right as of late, and the addition of Allen on a three-year, $45.75 million deal two offseasons ago is up there with the best of their moves.

Big unknown: How Nix will play in January. While the rookie has been mighty impressive, the Broncos have been able to lean on their defense and the run game, and it stands to reason that playoff opponents will try to force Denver from that formula and put the game in the quarterback’s hands.

Nix helped the Broncos clinch their first playoff berth since 2015.
Nix helped the Broncos clinch their first playoff berth since 2015. | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

NFC

1. Detroit Lions (15–2)

Division finish: First, NFC North

Why they’ll win it all: It really starts with the foundation Dan Campbell and the Lions brass have laid. The biting-kneecaps thing was widely panned four years ago. But it was real. “It’s their mentality,” said an exec. “They’re built for playoff football, they don’t flinch, and they proved it again on Monday night [in San Francisco]. They make you uncomfortable, and they score.” There’s also a feeling, and a justified one, that Campbell will be able to deal with whatever challenges come Detroit’s way because the Lions can win so many different ways.

X-factor: Aaron Glenn and the defense’s health. As guys like Alex Anzalone and Aidan Hutchinson work their way back to health, the defense will have to keep weathering the storm. And in this case, because Hutchinson is out for another month or so, and Alim McNeill (a massive loss, too) isn’t coming back, they’ll have to do it with a young secondary continuing to get better, which would allow the coaches to continue manufacturing production up front.

Fatal flaw: The lack of a bona fide pass rusher. I talked to one exec who said at the beginning of the year he’d have circled three guys to be concerned with for an offense—McNeill, Hutchinson and Brian Branch. Za’Darius Smith is a nice piece, but not the type of player anyone is game-planning against. And if the rush can’t get home, it’ll really test a corner group that lost its most experienced, battle-tested piece, Carlton Davis III.

Under-the-radar player: Anzalone. Getting him back from a broken forearm is huge for the Lions. The leader and green dot for the defense, the inside linebacker took a big step forward when he came over from the Saints with Campbell. He has become the heart and soul of Glenn’s unit as a communicator and a tough, physical presence in the middle.

Big unknown: As good as the offense has been, can Jared Goff & Co. simply outscore everyone if the defense hits some bumps? The line is the best in football, Amon-Ra St. Brown is a perfect No. 1 receiver for Campbell’s program, David Montgomery will come back and pair with Jahmyr Gibbs, and Jameson Williams is coming of age. So every piece is in place. The burden, though, depending on the defense’s health, could be heavy.

2. Philadelphia Eagles (14–3)

Division finish: First, NFC East

Why they’ll win it all: Because they may have the most talented roster in football, and they can win games at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, which is a team trait that always travels in the playoffs. In particular, their ability to force turnovers with middle pressure from Jalen Carter, and control the game’s pace on the ground offensively, usually allows them to play games on their terms.

X-factor: Saquon Barkley. “With these quarterback-run teams, they don’t have to block one guy on every play, and that changes the math,” one scouting director said. “You put Saquon out there then, and his ability to create at the second level, if it’s well-blocked, you have an explosive gain. It’s really hard to stop.” And the other 31 teams know just how hard it is to stop a 2,000-yard rusher alongside Jalen Hurts, putting defenses in a constant state of conflict.

Fatal flaw: The edge rushers. Big-ticket free agent Bryce Huff just returned from a broken wrist and wasn’t that effective over the 11 games prior to the injury. “Huff’s been terrible,” said one exec. While he was down, Josh Sweat and Nolan Smith Jr. carried a heavier load, and have been just O.K. That puts a lot on Carter to create pressure. And if he can’t, that puts a lot of pressure on the young defensive backs, Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, who have played really well.

Under-the-radar player: Zack Baun. The Eagles’ personnel staff looked at the then-Saint hybrid before free agency, isolated his off-ball snaps, and thought there was something to the guy who’d played primarily on the edge. They were right, as the athleticism New Orleans always knew was there manifested as instincts playing in space, and more than 150 tackles followed.

Big unknown: Can the Eagles throw to win? “To me the quarterback is the biggest X-factor,” said an exec. “That’s why A.J. [Brown] was pissed off. … If you can get up on him, and make him throw, you got him.” Fair or not, that’s the book on the Eagles right now: It may be a narrow path to victory, but you try to take it by getting a lead and creating negative plays to put their offense in bad down-and-distance situations.

 Barkley has been a game-changer in his first year in Philadelphia.
Barkley has been a game-changer in his first year in Philadelphia. | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10–7)

Division finish: First, NFC South

Why they’ll win it all: The Bucs still have players from the 2020 title team who have now been a part of four consecutive playoff appearances, and they’ve gotten a lot younger around that core. Baker Mayfield’s a gamer and, as they’ve shown in December, they’re explosive and balanced on offense.

X-factor: The health of Antoine Winfield Jr.—who’s become the commander of Todd Bowles’s defense from his safety spot. When he’s not in the game communication breaks down and inconsistency follows. “Winfield is the heart and soul of that defense,” said one rival exec. At his best, he can wreak havoc on an offense individually, too, blitzing, covering and generating turnovers all over the field. So getting him healthy will be crucial.

Fatal flaw: The linebacker position, both on and off the ball. Lavonte David is still a good player but has shown his age. And the Buccaneers haven’t gotten what they’d hoped to from Yaya Diaby and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka off the edge, which has put the impetus on the interior guys to create a rush (which Calijah Kancey and Vita Vea have been able to do).

Under-the-radar player: I’m tempted to put Kancey here, because I don’t know that he’s gotten the notoriety that he deserves as a player who perfectly contrasts the giant, Vea, lining up next to him. But I’m going to go with rookie Tykee Smith, a corner/safety hybrid who’s tough, hard-tackling, athletic and can affect the the game from his nickel spot in various ways. He’s growing into Tampa’s version of Brian Branch.

Big unknown: Which version of Mayfield will show up? The Tampa quarterback has, on balance, played really well the past couple years. But about once a month or so, we’ve seen a clunker from the veteran. And so getting the hair-on-fire version that’s been the perfect successor to Tom Brady will, obviously, be important, regardless of the opponent.

4. Los Angeles Rams (10–7)

Division finish: First, NFC West

Why they’ll win it all: Their combination of coach and quarterback. Matthew Stafford may turn 37 during Super Bowl week, but he’s still plenty capable of running Sean McVay’s offense at a very high level—and that’s shown up in the biggest moments this year, even as the names around him have changed. If L.A. can keep games close, having those two with the ball is a nice trump card.

X-factor: Jared Verse. The big, physical, heavy-handed edge is a massive problem for offenses—especially since they also have to deal with Kobie Turner, Braden Fiske and Byron Young. The first-rounder plays hard and brings a Terrell Suggs-style of play, capable of wrecking an opponent’s plan, even if he’s “just” a rookie.

Fatal flaw: The guys up front are capable of dominating, and that’s good, because the corner situation leaves a lot to be desired. The team has veteran journeymen Darious Williams (who’s been a huge addition in his return to L.A.), Ahkello Witherspoon on the outside and not much depth. First-year DC Chris Shula has done a nice job masking the issue, but it’ll be tough to keep that going if the pass rush stalls.

Under-the-radar player: Rookie safety Kamren Kinchens has been outstanding, and a big find for the team. He didn’t run well in the spring and had a bum ankle while in predraft training, so the Rams relied on the tape and saw an instinctive DB who played fast. He’s been a perfect fit as a safety who plays downhill with eyes on the quarterback, helping a fierce rush that forces quarterbacks to get the ball out quickly.

Big unknown: How will the tackles hold up? Alaric Jackson has unseated Joe Noteboom at left tackle—but whether he’s the long-term answer at the position is an open question. On the other side, Rob Haventein is getting older and has been beaten up. With Stafford losing a little mobility, it’s vital the Rams have their act together before their playoff opener at home next weekend.

McVay and Stafford have proven to be a dominant pairing in Los Angeles.
McVay and Stafford have proven to be a dominant pairing in Los Angeles. | Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images

5. Minnesota Vikings (14–3)

Division finish: Second, NFC North

Why they’ll win it all: Their overall balance and coaching. Kevin O’Connell and Kwesi Adofo-Mensah have put together a roster that doesn’t have many holes and is built for the pieces to fit together. Also, they’re explosive enough with the receivers they have to get a lead on offense, which enables DC Brian Flores to open the playbook and throw the kitchen sink at an opponent with his crew of smart, adaptable defenders.

X-factor: Sam Darnold. It’s getting harder and harder to doubt him, and I think it’s time to put to bed the first-round-bust narrative from his time in New York. The coaches’ trust in him was evident in how the Vikings threw the ball to put the Packers away in Week 17. That said, there was, in the past, a propensity for turning the ball over in key moments that some rival evaluators are curious about going into the playoffs. Will it return? We’ll see.

Fatal flaw: Interior pass rush. Because they lack the war daddy pass rush they had for all those years in Danielle Hunter, Flores does have to be a little more creative and aggressive with pressure (which can sometimes lead to big plays for an offense). As a result, they’ve struggled to get a consistent push from the inside.

Under-the-radar player: Jonathan Greenard is probably the closest thing they have to that sort of rusher, and has been a bit overlooked as a really solid signing. But let’s go with Jalen “Speedy” Nailor here. His numbers aren’t overwhelming, but Darnold’s been willing to go to him in big moments, and he’s plenty capable of making teams pay for overcommitting to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison on the outside.

Big unknown: The offensive line when faced with top-end defensive fronts. Losing left tackle Christian Darrisaw was massive. Cam Robinson’s been a good pickup, but he isn’t Darrisaw, and Minnesota is just O.K. at the guard spots. So there could be a path for a creative defensive coordinator to heat Darnold up in big situations.

6. Washington Commanders (12–5)

Division finish: Second, NFC East

Why they’ll win it all: Because of the quarterback. It’s weird to say it, but Jayden Daniels, as a rookie, has become, in the words of one exec, “The reason they are where they are.” The exec continued, “You thought, in time, he’d wear down, but he’s stronger than I thought, one of those wiry-strong guys, and tough to bring down. He’s held up.” On top of that, he’s been nails in big spots, giving the Commanders the look of a team that never blinks.

X-factor: Zach Ertz. We’ve seen how much Daniels trusts him in big moments. Washington’s made do without a ton of threats outside of Terry McLaurin in its offensive skill group. So how Ertz holds up at his age—and he’s looked completely reenergized this year (he told me last week he feels that way, too)—will be a factor.

Under-the-radar player: Frankie Luvu. Dan Quinn uses Luvu the same way he did Micah Parsons in Dallas—as an all-over-the-front havoc-wreaker. And while Luvu isn’t Parsons athletically, he’s done enough for the Commanders to manage a lack of a true problem-causing edge rusher (a result of trading away Montez Sweat and Chase Young last year). The Bottom line is, if the defense is going to hold up, Luvu’s gonna be a big part of it.

Big unknown: Lattimore’s health. The chronic hamstring issue hasn’t gone away. And, yes, the trade for Lattimore was done with the next couple of years in mind. But it would help (a lot) if they got the All-Pro version in the next couple of weeks. Which, again, has always hinged on where he is physically.

7. Green Bay Packers (11–6)

Division finish: Third, NFC North

Why they’ll win it all: If Jordan Love gets hot, like he did last January, look out. “When he gets hot, there’s not a throw he can’t make,” said an exec. “They become the most explosive and the most efficient offense when that happens. It’s like, ‘What are we supposed to do here?’” And that makes Love a sort of X-factor, too. “He’ll make remarkable throws,” said another exec. “But sometimes it’s in between misses, turnover-worthy balls, sacks. It’s just inconsistent, and that’s tough if you have to win four in a row on the road.”

X-factor: Josh Jacobs. The run game in general has been monstrous for Green Bay—it even held up when Malik Willis was playing, and everyone in the stadium knew it was coming. It was always good. But Jacobs has brought an edge and toughness to OC Adam Stenavich’s concepts. “He’s a total badass,” said one of the execs. “With him and [tight end Tucker] Kraft, they’re a totally different team in the run game.”

Fatal flaw: The health of the secondary. First-year coordinator Jeff Hafley has built a more aggressive, attacking defense, but can’t call it the same way without star corner Jaire Alexander in there—and now Alexander’s been moved to injured reserve. Without Alexander, there are matchups to exploit, with Eric Stokes and Keisean Nixon thrust into the spotlight.

Under-the-radar player: Kraft is a good one, and a future star at tight end. But Edgerrin Cooper is the guy at linebacker—a freakishly athletic rookie who can pressure, cover, and run and hit. If the Packers are going to cover up holes in the secondary, it’s a fair bet that Cooper will be a factor in how they do it.

Big unknown: How will the offense hold up iff someone can take away their run game, and force Love and his young crew of receivers to play from behind and in bad down-and-distance situations? They’re certainly explosive enough to make it work. But delivering on a playoff stage, against a playoff-level defense, is a different thing.


This article was originally published on www.si.com as NFL Playoffs Preview 2025: Why Each Team Could Win the Super Bowl .

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