One of the downsides of doing these weekly “What We Learned” columns is it can be easy to make the mistake of labeling teams as bad, good or very good too quickly, a dangerous game in a league with an ever-shifting power structure.
Now that we’re in the midst of Week 16, though, I feel confident to fully assess the Minnesota Vikings, one of the teams I was very wrong about heading into the season. The Vikings have long looked like a complete team with a prolific offense and opportunistic defense. But even as the wins have piled up, there have been questions as to whether Minnesota could be a true Super Bowl contender with quarterback Sam Darnold, who’s in the midst of a breakout season but has never started a playoff game.
Justin Jefferson reminded us Sunday that the Darnold–led Vikings could be preparing for a lengthy postseason run because No. 18 resides in Minnesota. Jefferson, the ultimate security blanket, put on a show Sunday in Seattle to help Minnesota win what could have been a trap game ahead of two massive divisional matchups to end the regular season. And Darnold certainly did his part, showing there might not be a weakness on coach Kevin O’Connell’s team.
Again, I know it’s dangerous to shower a team with this kind of praise, especially before the Vikings face off against the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions to decide the NFC North title. But it’s Week 16. It’s time to start believing in the Purple.
We also learned plenty about the Washington Commanders, Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills and Atlanta Falcons.
Justin Jefferson can carry Vikings in playoffs
Jefferson is one of the most competitive players in the league, and he had extra juice for the Seattle Seahawks’ defensive backs Sunday as if he knew he needed an elite performance to get the Vikings a victory.
The NFC’s receiving leader backed up his trash talk by making several big plays, none bigger than the 39-yard, go-ahead touchdown to give Minnesota a four-point advantage with under four minutes remaining. The Vikings’ defense did the rest by forcing a missed 60-yard field goal and an interception to safety Theo Jackson to seal the 27–24 road win.
The Vikings will be in the playoffs because they have a complete team, but they’re legitimate Super Bowl contenders because of Jefferson. He might be the best non-quarterback offensive weapon in the league. And before you counter with Saquon Barkley, Ja’Marr Chase or Derrick Henry, make sure to watch closely what Jefferson did to the Seahawks’ defensive backs in coverage, recording 10 catches for 144 yards and two touchdowns.
Jefferson set the tone as a security blanket for Darnold, who did a standout job of moving in the pocket to keep plays alive and give Jefferson a chance downfield. Darnold went 22-of-35 for 246 yards, three touchdowns and no turnovers.
It was impressive how Jefferson embraced the challenge and never appeared bothered by the high-stakes game. It would be tough for the Vikings to go on a deep run as a wild-card team, even though they’re capable of winning multiple road games. But thanks to Jefferson’s heroics, the Vikings now have a strong chance of stealing the NFC North from the Lions. Both teams are 13–2 and play each other in Detroit to end the regular season, a massive game that could decide the division and the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Minnesota does, however, have a tough home game against the Packers next week while the Lions go across the country to face the San Francisco 49ers. After Jefferson has spent months living up to his billing as a three-time All-Pro, he might not have a problem doing the heavy lifting for a stacked Vikings team next month.
The Seahawks put up a valiant effort, but they’re now going to need the Arizona Cardinals, who were eliminated from playoff contention with a loss to the Carolina Panthers Sunday, to beat the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium on Saturday to keep their NFC West title hopes alive. Seattle is also two games behind Washington for the final wild-card spot. The Seahawks face the Chicago Bears next week before ending the regular season against the Rams.
Josh Allen’s throwing elbow injury could be a problem
The Buffalo Bills held on to defeat the New England Patriots on Sunday, 24–21, after falling behind 14–0 early, but the result was in question as Josh Allen continuously shook his throwing hand early in the fourth quarter.
Bills fans had to wonder what was going on with Allen’s arm as the spectre of a potential upset loss loomed over Highmark Stadium. The latter concern was diminished when Patriots rookie quarterback Drake Maye threw a backward pass that was recovered in the end zone by cornerback Taron Johnson to extend Buffalo’s lead to 24–14 with 10 minutes left.
The Bills (12–3) avoided one of the biggest upsets of the season and remained alive in the race for the AFC’s No. 1 seed after overcoming one final push from the Patriots to defeat their AFC East rivals. But catching the Kansas City Chiefs (14–1) in the final two weeks of the regular season should be the least of their worries. Allen was clearly bothered by his throwing hand, constantly looking down at it and even asking for medical assistance. But the team cleared him to return to the field and announced the injury as an elbow contusion.
Reports emerged Sunday morning that Allen had been playing with a broken left hand since Week 1. The information probably leaked because Allen is no longer affected by the injury, evident by his monster performances in the past month to make him the frontrunner for MVP. Allen wasn’t so dominant against New England, completing 16 of 29 passes for 154 yards, one touchdown and one interception.
It’s too early to say how much Allen could be affected by the elbow injury, but it’s concerning that the Bills have needed the offense to play at a high level to mask their defensive issues. Buffalo allowed a combined 86 points vs. the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions before the sluggish victory over the Patriots.
Commanders will benefit in many ways from comeback vs. Eagles
Let’s get this out of the way now. Yes, the Washington Commanders benefited from Jalen Hurts being ruled out early in the game due to a concussion. The Commanders caught a break in their 36–33 victory vs. the Philadelphia Eagles, which puts them in strong position to clinch a playoff spot in the final two weeks of the regular season.
But the Commanders (10–5) earned the hard-fought, come-from-behind victory against one of the best defenses in the league. It was the kind of signature victory that could help a young, up-and-coming team in various aspects for many weeks to come.
Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels struggled against Vic Fangio’s defense in their first meeting, just like most quarterbacks have this season when facing Philadelphia. Daniels still had his issues in the second meeting, throwing two interceptions, but he made adjustments and found the holes in Fangio’s two-high shell defense to sustain drives. It was just more evidence that Daniels is deserving of the Offensive Rookie of the Year award and has what it takes to be a franchise quarterback.
Some of the game’s most reliable signal-callers go a whole season without completing a comeback, and the well-composed Daniels has a handful of them in his rookie year. Daniels completed four of five passes on the final drive, with the one incompletion being a spike to stop the clock before hitting Jamison Crowder for the game-winning, nine-yard touchdown pass. Daniels finished 24-of-39 for 258 yards, five touchdowns and two picks, and also contributed nine carries for 81 yards, including key scrambles on the final drive.
Washington’s shaky defense benefited from not having to deal with Hurts, but it says plenty that they minimized the damage from Barkley (29 carries, 150 yards, two touchdowns) in the second half and forced backup Kenny Pickett to settle for field goals on the final two drives to open the door for Daniels to steal the victory. Pickett (14-of-24, 143 yards, one touchdown, one interception) does deserve credit for keeping drives alive and converting on a few fourth downs when the Eagles trailed 28–27 in the fourth quarter. He nearly had another key conversion, but DeVonta Smith had a costly drop to force the Eagles to settle for a field goal instead of killing most of the game clock.
The Commanders now have a confidence booster in case they run into their NFC East rivals for a third time during wild-card weekend. The Eagles (12–3) are now a game behind the Lions for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Lions broke the tie with Philadelphia after cruising 34–17 against the Bears on Sunday.
Bengals’ playoff hopes alive and well after beating Browns
The Cincinnati Bengals have taken full advantage of the gift they got from the Dallas Cowboys’ special teams three weeks ago.
It’s wild to think the Bengals were a blocked punt away from wasting a historic season from Joe Burrow and Chase to now having a strong chance of advancing to the playoffs after defeating the Cleveland Browns, 24–6, to extend their winning streak to three games. Burrow said at the time that it was nice for a close game to finally go their way after the Bengals miraculously recovered the blocked punt in Dallas to retain possession and complete the comeback.
Now everything seems to be going the Bengals’ way, including scoreboards around the league and a very timely upcoming matchup against the Denver Broncos (9–6), who hold a two-game lead over Cincinnati for the seventh and final seed in the AFC. The Los Angeles Chargers opened the door for the Bengals after Thursday’s win against the Broncos. After relying on others, the Bengals (7–8) can now do themselves a giant favor by beating the Broncos at home on Saturday.
Cincinnati didn’t have its best game on Sunday against the Browns, but once again, Burrow and Chase saved the day. Burrow made Cleveland pay for an offsides penalty that gave him a free play, which resulted in a 40-yard touchdown bomb late in the fourth quarter to end the Browns’ comeback hopes. That also made him the first player in NFL history to throw for at least 250 passing yards and three touchdowns in seven consecutive games. Chase likewise made history on the play by becoming the first Bengals player ever to reach 1,500 receiving yards in a single season.
If the Bengals beat the Broncos next week and get by the Steelers in the regular-season finale, and the Broncos lose to the Chiefs in Week 18, Burrow and Chase could do plenty of damage in the postseason. Perhaps we see a seventh-seeded team defeat a No. 2 seed in a wild-card matchup for the second consecutive year. (The Packers beat the Cowboys last postseason.) But that’s getting too far ahead. Plenty still needs to happen for the Bengals, but again, it’s wild to think they were on the verge of having nothing to play for in these final weeks had they lost in Dallas.
Penix looks the part in Falcons’ dominant win vs. Giants
Michael Penix Jr. had a quiet starting debut, but it was easy to see why he was the better option over Kirk Cousins during the Falcons’ dominant 34–7 victory over the lowly New York Giants.
Penix, the No. 8 pick in April’s draft, looked the part of a starting NFL quarterback by displaying poise in the pocket and efficiently running the offense, which heavily leaned on running back Bijan Robinson, who recorded 22 carries for 94 yards and two touchdowns. Penix (18-of-27, 202 yards, no touchdowns and one interception) also had the benefit of Atlanta’s defense recording two pick-sixes, one apiece from safety Jessie Bates III and edge rusher Matthew Judon. Cousins could have used that kind of defensive help during the team’s four-game losing streak, but the Falcons were also losing because of his lack of mobility and arm strength.
Those weren’t issues for Penix, allowing offensive coordinator Zac Robinson to open up the playbook. Penix had modest numbers, but he would have had a better day in the stat sheet if it weren’t for a few dropped passes, including one in the red zone from tight end Kyle Pitts that turned into an interception.
The Falcons (8–7) still need the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8–6) to lose a game to regain control in the NFC South, but they appear to have better odds of winning games with Penix under center. (The Buccaneers are on the road Sunday night to face the Cowboys.) Atlanta is in Washington next week and returns home to face Carolina in the regular-season finale.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as What We Learned in Week 16: Justin Jefferson Can Take Vikings on Lengthy Playoff Run .