Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where the injury news is not good. First Quarter: Twelve Angry People. Second Quarter: CFP Prediction. Third Quarter: Love-Hate Coordinator Relationships.
Fourth Quarter: This Could Be the Week All Hell Breaks Loose
The SEC will rightly suck up most of the heat and light this weekend with huge matchups in Austin and Knoxville. But don’t discount the potential for unexpected tumult elsewhere, with no fewer than 10 College Football Playoff contenders walking into potential trap situations. The Dash sprints through 15 games every knowledgeable fan needs to keep tabs on.
Massive SEC games (33)
No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (5–1) at No. 1 Texas Longhorns (6–0)
When: 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday. TV: ABC. Stakes: Winner can claim “Best in SEC” honors for the time being. Line: Texas by 4, per DraftKings. This feels like a line of scrimmage game, and these Bulldogs are not like the Bulldogs of recent vintage in that area. Texas is better at running the ball and stopping the run. Dash pick: Texas 28, Georgia 21.
No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide (5–1) at No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers (5–1)
When: 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday. TV: ABC. Stakes: Loser steps to the playoff brink, winner buys more time and better position. Line: Alabama by 2.5, per DraftKings. Bama’s collapsing defense takes on Tennessee’s fading offense in a matchup of units needing to get right. When in doubt, go with the experienced QB who can make big plays. Dash pick: Alabama 30, Tennessee 24.
Undefeated trap games (34)
No. 6 Miami Hurricanes (6–0) at Louisville Cardinals (4–2)
When: Noon ET Saturday. TV: ABC. Stakes: A Miami win keeps the Canes moving toward the ACC title game and just about kills the Cards as a contender. A Louisville win changes playoff complexion in the league and nationally. Line: Miami by 4.5, per DraftKings. Jeff Brohm has a wall full of upsets, from Notre Dame last year to Michigan State in 2021 to Ohio State in ’18 to Iowa on multiple occasions. And Mario Cristobal has been known to step into an open manhole on occasion. Dash pick: Louisville 35, Miami 33.
Nebraska Cornhuskers (5–1) at No. 16 Indiana Hoosiers (6–0)
When: Noon ET Saturday. TV: Fox. Stakes: Huskers trying to stay in the Big Ten race. Hoosiers trying to take another step toward a wholly improbable playoff bid. Line: Indiana by 6.5, per DraftKings. Everyone is wondering what the Hoosiers will look like in a tight spot or playing from behind—but if Nebraska’s only previous road game is any indication, the Huskers might not be good enough to force the issue. They were scoreless for the first 42 minutes at Purdue, which has the worst defense in the Big Ten. Dash pick: Indiana 38, Nebraska 27.
No. 2 Oregon Ducks (6–0) at Purdue Boilermakers (1–5)
When: 8 p.m. ET Friday. TV: Fox. Stakes: Ducks are steamrolling toward the playoffs and a potential first-round bye. Boilermakers are trying to shock the world and salvage their season. Line: Oregon by 27.5, per DraftKings. This would be a stunner along the lines of Northern Illinois over Notre Dame, but keep this in mind: It’s a short turnaround for a long trip after the biggest home game in Oregon history, so a letdown is foreseeable. And Purdue might have turned a corner by scoring 49 points (and losing by one) to Illinois last week. Dash pick: Oregon 52, Purdue 31.
Oklahoma State Cowboys (3–3) at No. 13 BYU Cougars (6–0)
When: 10:15 p.m. ET Friday. TV: ESPN. Stakes: Cowboys trying to turn around a season that’s slipping away. Cougars trying to stay at the front of the Big 12 title race. Line: BYU by 9.5, per DraftKings. The Friday night games have been wild this season, and this fits the profile of a mayhem game. Mike Gundy is an upset master in his own right and comes in off an open-date advantage that his program probably needed to cleanse itself after three straight losses. BYU has been punching above its weight. Dash pick: Oklahoma State 26, BYU 24.
Central Florida Knights (3–3) at No. 9 Iowa State Cyclones (6–0)
When: 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday. TV: FS1. Stakes: Knights trying to stop the bleeding after three straight losses. Cyclones trying to stay in the Big 12 and playoff mix. Line: Iowa State by 14, per DraftKings. Gus Malzahn is another coach who has won some games he wasn’t expected to—and frankly, he needs to find some of that old magic. He’s also tapped into a dynamic freshman quarterback, Jacurri Brown, who had nearly 300 yards of total offense against Cincinnati last week. But Iowa State is a tough defense for a young QB still learning the trade. Dash pick: Iowa State 27, UCF 13.
One-loss trap games (35)
No. 12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5–1) at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5–2)
When: 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday. TV: ESPN. Stakes: The Irish are in the playoff hunt. The Jackets are trying to reach bowl eligibility and keep going from there. Line: Notre Dame by 12, per DraftKings. Brent Key is yet another upset specialist, with 10 wins as an underdog in just 28 games at Tech. Notre Dame has been brutalized by injuries and just lost star cornerback Benjamin Morrison for the season. Dash pick: Notre Dame 24, Georgia Tech 22.
Arizona State Sun Devils (5–1) at Cincinnati Bearcats (4–2)
When: Noon ET Saturday. TV: ESPN+. Stakes: Devils are trying to further advance their rapid turnaround. Bearcats are working on a sneaky-good season, with two losses by a total of four points to teams that are a combined 11–1. Line: Cincinnati by 2.5, per DraftKings. This has trouble written all over it for the Devils—an overachieving team making a three-time-zone trek for a 9 a.m. body-clock kickoff. Dash pick: Cincinnati 27, Arizona State 17.
No. 8 LSU Tigers (5–1) at Arkansas Razorbacks (4–2)
When: 7 p.m. ET Saturday. TV: ESPN. Stakes: Tigers are in playoff contention. Hogs have bounced back from a couple of down years to the edge of SEC contention. Line: LSU by 3, per DraftKings. The Hogs play nothing but close games, and that’s been the story of LSU’s two SEC games. Expect this to be another one between two statistically similar teams. Dash pick: LSU 31, Arkansas 27.
No. 17 Kansas State Wildcats (5–1) at West Virginia Mountaineers (3–3)
When: 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday. TV: Fox. Stakes: K-State is in the thick of the Big 12 race and WVU isn’t out of it, since two of its three losses are in nonconference games. Line: Kansas State by 3, per DraftKings. West Virginia’s three losses are to undefeated teams. The Wildcats are playing their second straight road game after a very late night in Boulder last weekend. Dash pick: West Virginia 28, Kansas State 27.
Auburn Tigers (2–4) at No. 19 Missouri Tigers (5–1)
When: Noon ET Saturday. TV: ESPN. Stakes: Auburn is simply trying to find itself. Mizzou is near the back of the SEC pack chasing a playoff spot. Line: Missouri by 4.5, per DraftKings. Hugh Freeze has got an upset in him. Remember, he came within a fourth-and-31 of blowing up the playoff last year with a bad team. But this one probably isn’t it. Dash pick: Missouri 24, Auburn 19.
Military takeover advancement opportunities (36)
East Carolina Pirates (3–3) at No. 23 Army Black Knights (6–0)
When: Noon ET Saturday. TV: ESPN2. Stakes: East Carolina is trying to save Mike Houston’s job. Army is playing for God, country and the most unlikely playoff bid ever. Line: Army by 15, per DraftKings. After being bludgeoned on the ground by Charlotte two weeks ago, the Pirates better have put their open date to good use in finding a run defense. Good luck on that. Dash pick: Army 49, East Carolina 28.
Charlotte 49ers (3–3) at No. 25 Navy Midshipmen (5–0)
When: 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday. TV: CBSSN. Stakes: Charlotte is trying to stay on the path to bowl eligibility for the first time in five years and just the second time in program history. Navy is playing for God, country and the most unlikely playoff bid ever. Line: Navy by 17, per DraftKings. Charlotte might be a dangerous opponent here after consecutive wins, but the Midshipmen are the better team and don’t beat themselves (zero turnovers in their last four games). Dash pick: Navy 38, Charlotte 31.
The stealth big game (37)
North Texas Mean Green (5–1) at Memphis Tigers (5–1)
When: 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday. TV: ESPNU. Stakes: Both teams are having successful seasons while nobody’s watching, and the winner could be the biggest non-service academy threat to win the American Athletic Conference. If either of them ends up winning the league, could they threaten the Mountain West winner for best Group of 5 champion and a playoff bid? Line: Memphis by 10, per DraftKings. The Tigers are an improved defensive team. North Texas is simply trying to outscore everyone. Dash pick: Memphis 55, North Texas 38.
Coach Who Earned His Comp Car This Week
Kenny Dillingham (38), Arizona State. Buy stock now. At age 34, he’s a rising star in the profession. And his postgame interview on ESPN after beating Utah was one for the (young) ages.
Coach Who Should Take the Bus to Work
Billy Napier (39), Florida Gators. His team fought hard at Tennessee, and Napier deserves credit for that. But he got conservative with the game on the line and it cost him. After scoring to pull within a point at 17–16 in the final minute, Napier opted to tie the game and play overtime instead of going for two and the potential win right there. Given his QB situation—an injury to starter Graham Mertz and freshman DJ Lagway was overwhelmed—it was time to try to win it on a single play. Florida lost in OT.
Point After
When thirsty in the target-rich beer state of Oregon, The Dash recommends hitting Gorges Beer Co. (40) in Cascade Locks. The brewery offers compelling sidewalk advertising, with a sign that reads, “19 miles to the next beer.” Order a Bridal Veil Falls IPA and thank The Dash later.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Forde-Yard Dash: 15 College Football Games That Could Create Chaos.