Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where The Dash regrets to inform you that the league office is not manipulating the officiating to undermine your favorite team. First Quarter: Twelve Angry Men. Second Quarter: Vandy’s Rise.
Third Quarter: How Soon Is Too Soon to Fall Out of Love With Your Coach?
Like attention spans, patience with coaches continues to shrink. When they’re paid like saviors, the saving is expected to begin quickly. And with the available means to flip a roster, nobody wants to hear about a long rebuild.
But this remains a zero-sum game, which means some teams must fall behind while others get ahead. The Dash checks in on a few situations where the winning is not happening very fast and applies some historical context. (Buyouts are a different part of the equation; in a rational world almost none of these would be financially responsible, but college football left rational behind a long time ago.)
Lincoln Riley (23), USC Trojans
This season: 3–2, 1–2 in the Big Ten. Overall record at the school: 22–10, .688 winning percentage. USC’s all-time winning percentage: .697. Trajectory: Down.
Riley is dead-on with the Trojans’ historical track record. The problem is that he was expected to be in the John McKay/Pete Carroll class of USC coaches, and thus far is more Clay Helton 2.0, with declining returns after an 11–3 debut season. Changing conferences wasn’t Riley’s idea, but he’s the one piloting the ship as USC takes on a much harder travel burden and generally tougher competition. The Trojans are 0–2 on the road against Michigan and Minnesota teams that are, themselves, just 5–5 against other competition.
Too soon to file for divorce? Yes. Unless this season collapses completely or Riley himself bails, he should be back for Year 4 in 2025. That will be an urgent one.
Mike Norvell (24), Florida State Seminoles
This season: 1–5, 1–4 in the ACC. Overall record at the school: 32–22, .593 winning percentage. Florida State’s all-time winning percentage: .670. Trajectory: Down.
He’s gone from hero to zero in record time, plummeting from a 13–0 record and ACC championship to an embarrassing bowl loss and this abject bust of a season. (If Cal hadn’t Cal’d in Tallahassee on Sept. 21, the Noles would be winless.) A guy with an offensive background is presiding over what is easily the worst offense in a league the Seminoles thought they had outgrown.
Too soon to file for divorce? Yes, despite slipping below historical precedent. The Dash maintains that a coach who can go 13–0 and win a league title is worth giving every opportunity to dig out of a reversal of fortune—but these are desperate times in Tallahassee, with the school agitating to leave the ACC in pursuit of more cash elsewhere. (Where, exactly, remains elusive.)
Billy Napier (25), Florida Gators
This season: 3–2, 1–1 in the SEC. Overall record at the school: 14–16, .467 winning percentage. Florida’s all-time winning percentage: .626. Trajectory: Even.
Napier was all but fired Sept. 14 after dropping to 1–2 with a second uncompetitive home loss. Since then, he’s navigated through two straight must-win games to at least calm things down, but the next six games are brutal and could spell the end. You certainly won’t find anyone declaring that a turnaround is at hand after beating Central Florida and Mississippi State.
Too soon to file for divorce? No. Barring some major upsets in the coming weeks, a third-year coach with a losing record gets what he gets in Gainesville.
Gus Malzahn (26), Central Florida Knights
This season: 3–2, 1–1 in the Big 12. Overall record at the school: 27–18, .600 winning percentage. UCF’s all-time winning percentage: .559. Trajectory: Down.
Malzahn started off with two nine-win seasons, then has dipped to 9–9 since then. Obviously, that corresponds with entering the Big 12, a step up in week-to-week class, which has to be factored in. But if this season goes south, it will be hard to maintain belief that Malzahn is the guy who can lift the Knights to conference title contention.
Too soon to file for divorce? As of early October, yes. Check back in a month.
Marcus Freeman (27), Notre Dame Fighting Irish
This season: 4–1. Overall record at the school: 23–9, .719 winning percentage. Notre Dame’s all-time winning percentage: .734. Trajectory: Even.
If Freeman could erase two Saturdays from his record—home losses to Marshall and Northern Illinois—there is no conversation to have regarding his job status. But those games did happen, so here we are. The current team’s season-opening win over Texas A&M looks better by the week, and beating Louisville should help the résumé as well. In an interesting twist, a guy with two bad Group of 5 losses faces two unexpectedly major G5 games in the coming weeks: undefeated Navy on Oct. 26 and undefeated Army on Nov. 23.
Too soon to file for divorce? Yes. It seemingly would take some very bad losses the rest of this season to put Freeman’s status in doubt—but again, very bad losses have been part of the deal.
Hugh Freeze (28), Auburn Tigers
This season: 2–4, 0–3 in the SEC. Overall record at the school: 8–11, .421 winning percentage. Auburn’s all-time winning percentage: .621. Trajectory: Down.
If Freeze were Bryan Harsin—an outsider hired by an athletic director who tried to keep boosters out of the process—he would be as good as gone right now. Because, boy howdy, it is not good right now. But Freeze came with SEC street crew and booster approval, so that may keep the waters calmer for now.
Too soon to file for divorce? You jump into a viper pit, you expect to be bitten. Auburn has lost six straight to power-conference opponents, which is no way to live at that school. But if Freeze can keep his current top-five national recruiting class intact, that could provide enough cover to get a third season.
Brent Pry (29), Virginia Tech Hokies
This season: 3–3, 1–1 in the ACC. Overall record at the school: 13–17, .433 winning percentage. Virginia Tech’s all-time winning percentage: .601. Trajectory: Even.
Midway through Year 3, the arrow ideally would be pointing up more than it is right now. Three losses by a total of 14 points against pretty good teams—including a true heartbreaker at undefeated Miami—indicate the Hokies aren’t far off. But there are questions about whether Pry helps or hurts his team in those close-game situations.
Too soon to file for divorce? The back half of the season could tell a lot about where this goes. It seems like 7–5 is a reasonable minimum expectation.
Ryan Walters (30), Purdue Boilermakers
This season: 1–4, 0–2 in the Big Ten. Overall record at the school: 5–12, .294 winning percentage. Purdue’s all-time winning percentage: .515. Trajectory: Down.
Walters’s first year wasn’t great, and now his second is a significant step back from the first. The Boilers are winless against FBS competition with an average losing margin of 35 points. Purdue hadn’t generated a single turnover until Saturday against Wisconsin and has been mauled on the ground by opposing offenses.
Too soon to file for divorce? In a sane world, yes. Seventeen games is not a referendum at a place like Purdue. But Walters already has fired offensive coordinator Graham Harrell, an acknowledgement that the current product is not acceptable. And never underestimate the power of a rival’s renaissance; Indiana is 6–0, which creates some additional pressure.
Trent Dilfer (31), UAB Blazers
This season: 1–4, 0–2 in the AAC. Overall record at the school: 5–12, .294 winning percentage. UAB’s all-time winning percentage: .475. Trajectory: Down.
Dilfer’s program is in a near-identical position as Walters’s—the first year was bumpy and the second year is bad. It could be argued that UAB has played a sneaky-tough slate with Louisiana-Monroe and Navy a combined 9–1, but giving up 71 points to Tulane on Saturday was an embarrassment.
Too soon to file for divorce? This was something of a celebrity wedding, and you know those aren’t always built to last. Dilfer had no college coaching experience—is he committed to the grind of fixing the program? Or should he and UAB acknowledge that mistakes were made and move on?
Shawn Clark (32), Appalachian State Mountaineers
This year: 2–3, 0–2 in the Sun Belt. Overall record at the school: 37–21, .638 winning percentage. App State’s all-time winning percentage: .645. Trajectory: Down.
Clark is very much in line with App State’s history, but the previous 30 years were better than what preceded them and better than what Clark has done. This season has hit an inflection point with the hurricane devastation that hit Boone, N.C., so it might be hard to judge what happens from here. But the Mountaineers have given up 48 or more points in each of their three losses, which is an awful lot.
Too soon to file for divorce? Definitely not too soon, in Clark’s fifth season. The question is whether it’s merited. App State has been one of the top programs in the Sun Belt for years, and this looks like a regression.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Forde-Yard Dash: 10 College Football Coaches on Increasingly Hotter Seats.