The AFC looks much different than it did a week ago.
On Sunday, the Buffalo Bills defeated the Kansas City Chiefs, 30–21, finally giving the two-time defending champions their first loss of the season. Suddenly, the Bills are in play for the top seed with the AFC East all but clinched.
Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers now have a 1.5 game lead on the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North after beating them 18–16. The North has become a two-team race after seeing the Cincinnati Bengals lose on Sunday night in Los Angeles.
And in the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks beat the San Francisco 49ers, putting three teams a game behind the Arizona Cardinals in the sport’s tightest division.
But how does everyone stand in the playoff picture going to Monday night? Let’s break it all down.
Additionally, all playoff probabilities are courtesy of The Athletic’s model.
AFC: WHO’S IN
No. 1: Kansas City Chiefs
Record: 9–1, first place, AFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 4
Playoff probability: 99%
Kansas City finally lost Sunday, ending the impossible dream of going undefeated. Still, the Chiefs remain the AFC’s top seed with the Carolina Panthers and Las Vegas Raiders on deck.
No. 2: Buffalo Bills
Record: 9–2, first place, AFC East
Remaining opponents over .500: 1
Playoff probability: 99%
Buffalo got its biggest win of the season, beating the Chiefs to earn a major tiebreaker while also pulling within a half-game of Kansas City for the top seed. The Bills now go on their bye week before hosting the San Francisco 49ers.
No. 3: Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 8–2, first place, AFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 3
Playoff probability: 93%
The Steelers benefitted from three Baltimore turnovers and two missed field goals from Justin Tucker to win a key divisional game. Without scoring a touchdown, Pittsburgh won by way of six field goals.
No. 4: Houston Texans
Record: 6–4, first place, AFC South
Remaining opponents over .500: 2
Playoff probability: 94%
Houston visits the woebegone Dallas Cowboys on Monday night before returning home to host the Tennessee Titans.
No. 5: Los Angeles Chargers
Record: 7–3, second place, AFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 4
Playoff probability: 94%
After almost blowing a 21-point, second-half lead, the Chargers found themselves just in time and marched 84 yards on three plays to win 34–27 over the Bengals. Now, the Ravens come to town on Monday night.
No. 6: Baltimore Ravens
Record: 7–4, second place, AFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 4
Playoff probability: 95%
With the loss in Pittsburgh on Sunday, the Ravens are now 1.5 games back in the division. The two teams will rematch later in the year, with Baltimore next facing the Chargers on Monday night.
No. 7: Denver Broncos
Record: 6–5, third place, AFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 2
Playoff probability: 43%
With a resounding 38–6 win over the Atlanta Falcons, Denver has gained better control of a playoff spot. The Broncos have the Raiders, Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts next on the docket.
IN THE HUNT
Indianapolis Colts (5–6): With a last-minute win over the New York Jets, Anthony Richardson and the Colts remain in the race. Now, for a date with the one-loss Lions at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Miami Dolphins (4–6): The Dolphins handled the Raiders on Sunday, staying in the hunt with the New England Patriots coming to town next.
Cincinnati Bengals (4–7): The Bengals could probably make the playoffs by winning out, but after losing to the Chargers in excruciating fashion, Cincinnati needs a miracle.
NFC: WHO’S IN
No. 1: Detroit Lions
Record: 9–1, first place, NFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 3
Playoff probability: 99%
The Lions continue to destroy everyone in their path. Detroit put another 50-spot on the board, this time smoking the Jacksonville Jaguars. It’s hard to argue they aren’t deserving of everyone’s top spot in the power rankings.
No. 2: Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 8–2, first place, NFC East
Remaining opponents over .500: 3
Playoff probability: 99%
The Eagles handled the Commanders on Thursday night in a battle for first place in the NFC East. Philadelphia now has a mini-bye prior to visiting the Los Angeles Rams next Sunday night.
No. 3: Arizona Cardinals
Record: 6–4, first place, NFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 1
Playoff probability: 62%
Arizona has a bye week before getting back to action in Week 12, where the Cardinals will take on the Seattle Seahawks in the Pacific Northwest.
No. 4: Atlanta Falcons
Record: 6–5, first place, NFC South
Remaining opponents over .500: 3
Playoff probability: 87%
Atlanta was waxed by the Broncos and although the loss stings from a seeding perspective, the Falcons are still in command of the NFC South. The big question is whether Atlanta can get back to the three seed.
No. 5: Minnesota Vikings
Record: 8–2, second place, NFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 4
Playoff probability: 94%
Minnesota handled the Tennessee Titans with ease, keeping it within one game of the Lions in the NFC North. Up, next are the Chicago Bears before a three-game homestand.
No. 6: Green Bay Packers
Record: 7–3, third place, NFC North
Remaining opponents over .500: 2
Playoff probability: 79%
Green Bay needed to block a 45-yard field goal as time expired to beat Chicago, but the Packers found a way. It would be shocking if they don’t reach the postseason, but what seed is still very much up in the air.
No. 7: Washington Commanders
Record: 7–4, second place, NFC East
Remaining opponents over .500: 2
Playoff probability: 89%
After losing to the Eagles, Washington is now 1.5 games back in the NFC East and, at least until it plays Philadelphia again in December, will be relegated to playing for a wild-card spot.
IN THE HUNT
Los Angeles Rams (5–5): The Rams were expected to handle the Patriots and did so behind four Matthew Stafford touchdown passes. Now, Los Angeles comes home to host the Eagles on Sunday night.
Seattle Seahawks (5–5): By beating San Francisco, the Seahawks moved up a spot in the division while also closing to within a game of the NFC West-leading Cardinals, whom they host on Sunday.
San Francisco 49ers (5–5): San Francisco is still very much alive in the playoff picture, but urgency is growing. The Niners face a borderline must-win against the Packers next Sunday.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as 2024 NFL Playoff Picture, Week 11: Bills, Steelers Earn Key Tiebreakers.