The 2025 Hall of Fame ballot includes 14 new names. Most are likely one-and-done, as candidates need 75% support for election and 5% to remain on the ballot.
Last year was typical for the 12 newbies on that ballot: two elected (Adrian Beltré and Joe Mauer), two back for another try (Chase Utley and David Wright) and eight one-and-dones.
But let’s remember it is a rare honor for someone to get on the ballot at all. So, in the spirit of recognizing the exceptional, if not Cooperstown-worthy careers of the 14 newcomers, here are the cases for and against voting for each one. It’s a fun exercise if only because you can see how selecting just the right numbers can make for interesting, if not convincing arguments. Voting is announced Jan. 21.
Carlos González
The case for: He had an oil painting of a swing, a beautiful masterpiece that for years was something to behold. Over a seven-year period (2010–16) he slashed .296/353/.535, won three Gold Gloves, made three All-Star teams and won two Silver Sluggers.
The case against: His career OBP against lefthanded pitching was .295. He slugged .608 at Coors Field and .418 on the road. He had an OPS+ of 95 in his 30s and finished with fewer than 1,500 hits.
Curtis Granderson
The case for: Granderson had 344 homers and 95 triples. Only eight other players did that, and all are in the Hall of Fame: Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, Joe DiMaggio, Stan Musial, Willie Mays, Henry Aaron and Andre Dawson.
The case against: He hit .223 against lefties. He finished in the top five of MVP voting once. He struck out a ton—14th on the all-time list. Only Mark Reynolds struck out more with a lower OPS.
Félix Hernández
The case for: He was one of the best pitchers in baseball over his first 11 seasons (2005–15). In that span he led the majors in strikeouts, was second to Halladay in ERA+, was third in starts and innings and finished in the top five in Cy Young voting four times, winning once.
Hernández made his debut at 19 in 2005 and by the time he was 29 already had piled up 2,262 ⅓ innings. Since the mound was lowered in 1969, only three pitchers threw more innings before turning 30 than King Felix: Bert Blyleven, Vida Blue and Fernando Valenzuela, all of whom started out a quarter of a century before Hernández did.
The case against: The workload caught up to him. He was done as an ace at age 29, never again throwing enough to qualify for the ERA title after throwing at least 190 innings for 10 straight years. You could say he was CC Sabathia without the prolific decline phase and without the frequent playoff teams behind him.
The more Hernández stays on the ballot, the better he looks as starting pitching continues to decline in the game today. But then, if Herná0ndez is a Hall of Famer, it’s time to re-think the cases of many other pitchers who dominated in their 20s but did not last. Here is a look at some comps, with Tim Hudson being the only one in this group to last more than one year on the ballot:
Starting pitchers through age 29
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Adam Jones
The case for: He was the rare player who slugged and played such premier defense in center field that he stayed at the position. He made 91% of his starts on defense in center field and ripped 259 home runs with 1,746 hits while playing there. Only eight others did that: Willie Mays, Ken Griffey Jr., Mickey Mantle, Jim Edmonds, Joe DiMaggio, Duke Snider, Steve Finley and Bernie Williams.
The case against: He fell short of 2,000 hits, 1,000 RBI and 300 homers. He struck out often and never walked 40 times in a season, posting a .317 career OBP.
Ian Kinsler
The case for: The list of second basemen with elite power and speed is short. Kinsler is one of only four second basemen to hit 250 homers and steal 200 bases. The others are all in the Hall: Craig Biggio, Ryne Sandberg and Joe Morgan.
The case against: Kinsler never finished in the top 10 in MVP voting, though he did make four All-Star Games.
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Russell Martin
The case for: Only two other catchers had 100 homers and 100 steals: Hall of Famers Iván Rodríguez and Carlton Fisk.
The case against: Martin never finished in the top 10 in MVP voting and did not reach 1,500 hits. He has a lower career WAR and 779 fewer hits than Jason Kendall.
Brian McCann
The case for: He slugged 282 homers and drove in 1,018 runs, one of only eight players to do so with catcher as their primary position.
The case against: He received MVP votes only twice, never finishing in the top 20.
Dustin Pedroia
The case for: The accolades are impressive: Rookie of the Year, MVP, four All-Star Games, four Gold Gloves, and a .299 career hitter with .805 OPS.
The case against: His injury-shortened career left him with 1,805 hits and fewer WAR than Chase Utley, Lou Whitaker and Kinsler.
Hanley Ramírez
The case for: When the Red Sox traded Ramírez, they privately conceded they may have traded a future Hall of Famer to get Josh Beckett. And through age 26 he looked it—Ramírez had 124 homers and 196 steals. Only César Cedeño, Barry Bonds and Ronald Acuña Jr. started their careers with that combination of power and speed—and none of them played infield, won a batting title or hit over .300, as did Ramírez.
The case against: After that start he hit .267 with 11.9 WAR over the next nine years.
Fernando Rodney
The case for: He pitched in 951 games over 17 years for 11 teams, compiled 327 saves, had an all-time great season at age 35 (0.60 ERA with 48 saves) and his Cooperstown plaque would look awesome with his hat askew.
The case against: His ERA (3.80), ERA+ (110) and WHIP (1.373) leave him closer to Todd Jones (no votes in 2014) than Cooperstown.
CC Sabathia
The case for: Let’s not complicate this. Sabathia is one of only 15 pitchers in history to reach 3,000 strikeouts and 250 wins. Of the 12 before him that appeared on a HOF ballot, all are in the Hall of Fame except Roger Clemens, who gets dinged by steroid taint.
But hey, we might as well go on. Sabathia:
- Was a modern-day workhorse. He is one of only two pitchers to debut in the past 36 years to throw 3,500 innings. Mike Mussina is the other. (Justin Verlander is on the doorstep.)
- Completed eight innings 103 times. Since 2000, only Roy Halladay had more such starts (119).
- Finished in the top five of Cy Young voting five times.
- Started nine postseason Game 1s. Only Verlander (14), Jon Lester (12), Clayton Kershaw (12) and Greg Maddux (11) started more in the expanded playoff era. His teams were 9–2 when he took the ball for Game 1.
- Sabathia was pedestrian for the final seven years of his career (60–59, 4.33 ERA, 97 ERA+), but the key was that he kept taking the ball. He averaged 25 starts per year in that long decline phase, pushing his strikeout and win totals into rare territory.
The case against: See above—decline phase. It was a long one.
Sabathia also mostly pitched for very good teams, which helped his win total and winning percentage. From 2007–19 he pitched for 10 playoff teams in 13 seasons. Sabathia is one of only 20 pitchers to compile a winning percentage of at least .600 over 3,500 innings or more. He has the worst ERA+ of those 20 (116).
His postseason ERA (4.28) is more than half a run higher than his regular season ERA and the third worst among those with at least 15 starts. (Only Kershaw and Framber Valdez are worse.)
Ichiro Suzuki
The case for: Easy. Magic numbers: 3,089 hits, a .311 batting average and 509 stolen bases. Only four other players in the 3,000 hit club have a .300 lifetime average with 500 steals: Ty Cobb, Eddie Collins, Honus Wagner and Paul Molitor.
He made the All-Star team in each of his first 10 seasons, while leading the league in hits in seven of those years and winning the MVP and Rookie of the Year in 2001.
Of course, he’s also pro baseball’s all-time hits leader when taking his nine NPB seasons into account.
The case against: Ichiro was a singles hitter who didn’t walk much. Eighty-one percent of his hits were singles, more than even Rod Carew (79%). His OPS+ of 107 will be the worst of any corner outfielder in the Hall of Fame. He had fewer total bases and fewer walks than Steve Finley, Johnny Damon and Rusty Staub.
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Troy Tulowitzki
The case for: Through age 26 he slashed .293/.364/.505 and three times finished in the top 10 in MVP voting. The rhythmical shouts at Coors Field of Tu-Lo! were awesome.
The case against: He just couldn’t stay healthy. Never again after age 26 did Tulo play more than 131 games or reach 150 hits in a season. He finished with 225 homers and 1,391 hits.
Ben Zobrist
The case for: Zorilla popularized the “super-utility” role. He played more than 200 games at four positions: second base, right field, shortstop and left field, and once led the AL in WAR. He played on back-to-back world champions, the 2015 Kansas City Royals and ‘16 Chicago Cubs, winning the MVP in the ‘16 Fall Classic with his tie-breaking extra-inning double in Game 7 that broke a 108-year title drought.
The case against: He finished with 1,566 hits, 167 home runs and one finish in the top 10 in MVP voting.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as The Cases For and Against the Baseball Hall of Fame’s First-Time Candidates.