There’s an old axiom that says when someone shows you who they are, believe them.
If the Pittsburgh Steelers don’t take Saturday night’s season-ending debacle as a statement, they’re either blind, naive or both.
The Steelers were not only dominated in a 28–14 loss to the Baltimore Ravens—the fourth time they’ve lost a wild-card game in the past five years—they failed to compete. They failed to be physical. They, at times, failed to make the requisite effort of an NFL team.
Moving into the offseason, it’s going to be a winter of discontent in Pittsburgh. And if general manager Omar Khan and ownership are honest with themselves, it’s time to make sweeping changes to a middling roster led by a longtime head coach.
And the offseason discussion should begin with Mike Tomlin.
Tomlin, 52, has been in Pittsburgh for 17 years and has never had a losing record. He also hasn’t had a playoff win since 2016.
There’s a solid argument to be made that Tomlin had little chance to advance in the playoffs during the final seasons of Ben Roethlisberger followed by Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph and Russell Wilson. There’s also a reality where a top-level quarterback doesn’t materialize in the Steel City considering the free-agent class, the rookie crop and Pittsburgh’s consistently mediocre draft positioning. Maybe Sam Darnold will be available, but he’s likely the only hope of upgrading before the 2025 season.
With those facts in mind, Khan should explore trading Tomlin. The Steelers need to replenish their roster and Tomlin might be the most attractive piece of the organization.
Pittsburgh could likely get a haul for Tomlin. In 2023, the Denver Broncos acquired Sean Payton from the New Orleans Saints for first- and second-round picks, while getting a third-rounder back as well. Other coaches have also been moved for big prices this century, including Jon Gruden (two first-rounders, two second-rounders and $8 million) and Bill Belichick (first-, fourth- and fifth-round picks).
Looking around the league, how could the Chicago Bears not be interested in sending a premium pick or two for Tomlin, after Chicago has ripped through four coaches in the past 12 years? What about the New York Jets? Who better to turn around a listless franchise which hasn’t made the playoffs in 14 years, the longest active streak in North American sports.
Maybe the Jacksonville Jaguars? Jacksonville has been a revolving door of players and coaches since Jack Del Rio left town after the 2011 season. Tomlin would bring immediate credibility to the franchise. And for Tomlin, he’d inherit a franchise quarterback in Trevor Lawrence.
If the Steelers decide to retain Tomlin, they should do it with the mutual understanding that a rebuild is coming.
Looking at Pittsburgh’s salary cap for 2025, it could have a cap-resetting, roster-rebuilding fire sale. The Steelers have seven players worth considering in any deal, including safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, edge rushers T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith, tight end Pat Freiermuth, receiver George Pickens, defensive lineman Cameron Heyward and linebacker Patrick Queen.
While nobody would suggest it’s realistic to deal all seven in a single offseason, here’s how their post-June 1 numbers look in terms of dead cap and cap savings, per Over The Cap.
- Fitzpatrick: $6.8 million dead money, $15.5 million cap space
- Watt: $9.3 million dead money, $21 million cap space
- Highsmith: $5.6 million dead money, $13 million cap space
- Freiermuth: $2.1 million dead money, $10.7 million cap space
- Pickens: $522,000 dead money, $3.5 million cap space
- Heyward: $4.9 million dead money, $14.7 million cap space
- Queen: $3.8 million dead money, $13.8 million cap space
Although Watt is the only one who could bring back a first-round pick (and in his case, that would be among other draft choices), there’s value in moving on from each.
With Watt, he’s 30 years old and history suggests a decline is coming soon considering his age. This season, he still had 11.5 sacks, his lowest total since his rookie year when playing at least 15 games. The 2021 Defensive Player of the Year also has just one year remaining on his deal. Surveying where Pittsburgh is competitively, there’s little reason to give him another megadeal.
Then there’s the enigmatic Pickens, who has elite deep-ball skills and has recorded a 17-game average of 1,006 receiving yards through his first three seasons. He’s also been a challenge to keep focused. Now 23 and entering a contract year, are the Steelers prepared to pay Pickens major money? If not, Khan should be on the phone looking to trade him for the best offer.
Elsewhere, Highsmith is 27, a quality edge rusher and worthy of a top-100 pick. If Matthew Judon could fetch a third-rounder at age 32, Highsmith certainly can as well.
Finally, there’s Fitzpatrick. The 28-year-old is a three-time first-team All-Pro. He’s an elite safety who can play all over the field. If Khan put him on the block, there would be substantial interest.
Again, even with the mindset of a full-blown yard sale, some of these stars will return. But the Steelers have to be honest with themselves. They aren’t close to winning a Super Bowl, and they aren’t close to seriously contending for one. They’re a decent team that turns into cannon fodder come the playoffs.
If Tomlin wants to stay, it should be with the knowledge that an overhaul is coming. And if he’s dealt away, that must be the start of a very busy next few months for Khan & Co.
On Saturday night, this edition of the Steelers had a chance to prove the doubters wrong. Instead, they validated every criticism, showcasing a team, and a coach, long on brand and short on substance.
It’s time to believe in who the Steelers actually are. Just watch them.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Wild-Card Rapid Reaction: Steelers Need to Rebuild, Maybe Trade Mike Tomlin.