With the 2024–25 NBA season at its midpoint, Sports Illustrated projects the second half with predictions for a handful of major awards and highlights a few things we learned in the first half.
MVP
Chris Mannix: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder point guard
My preseason pick for MVP is my midseason pick and, barring injuries and a historic collapse by OKC, will likely be my end-of-season pick. SGA is an elite, two-way player posting impressive numbers—31.4 points, 5.5 rebounds, 6.0 assists per game on 53%/36%/90% shooting splits—on a team running away with the Western Conference. He checks all the boxes.
Liam McKeone: Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets center
Voter fatigue is a real factor in MVP discussions and could very well prove to be the three-time winner’s downfall. But the Serbian big man has somehow elevated his game this season while the Nuggets have gotten worse around him; per Cleaning The Glass, Denver is 26 points per 100 possessions better with Jokic on the floor. In addition to his advanced stats dominance, the superstar ranks in the top three for points, assists and rebounds per game while leading the NBA in three-point field goal percentage. Plus, he’ll probably get a narrative bump from the way he’s revitalized Russell Westbrook. Jokic checks all the boxes, again, and his numbers should only get more eye-popping down the stretch as the Nuggets rely on him even more to get them to the postseason in decent shape.
Rookie of the Year
Mannix: Yves Missi, New Orleans Pelicans center
Did I know anything about Missi before the season? No. Have I been impressed with the 6' 11" big man who has taken advantage of the Pelicans’ injury issues to carve out a role in the rotation? Heck yes. An unheralded pick—most 21st overall selections are—has emerged as a reliable rebounder and shot blocker in New Orleans. And while his offense is largely paint-oriented, he’s among the rookie leaders in field goal percentage. That’s a nice find by Pels president David Griffin.
McKeone: Jaylen Wells, Memphis Grizzlies forward
The last time a ROY race wasn’t clear-cut, the award went to the best young player on a winning team (Malcolm Brogdon, 2017). Wells is the obvious choice should voters lean that direction again, and with a complete lack of dominant play from this season’s rookie class, they likely will. He’s an excellent defender for the contending Grizzlies, who defend at a top-10 level with Wells on the court. The 39th pick has also been very available, playing every game this season. If the Grizzlies remain in the top five of the West as the playoffs near, Wells should get his flowers as the most impactful rookie from this season’s class.
Coach of the Year
Mannix: Kenny Atkinson, Cleveland Cavaliers
I hated the Cavs’ decision to fire J.B. Bickerstaff, who had steered Cleveland out of the John Beilein era (or error) and into the second round of the playoffs. Turns out, Cavs brass is smarter than me. Atkinson, who has long deserved a second chance, has been brilliant. He unlocked Evan Mobley’s offense, leaned into the Cavs’ depth and maintained a top-10 defense with the NBA’s best offense.
McKeone: Kenny Atkinson, Cleveland Cavaliers
It can’t be anyone other than Atkinson. Even if the Cavaliers (understandably) regress from their 70-win pace at some point, it won’t take away from the incredible job he’s done in Cleveland. What’s more, he checks the boxes voters are looking for in a COY: elevating a team to new heights in one season, visible improvement from star players and stretches of true dominance. In the Cavs’ case, that stretch has been the entire season so far. It’s hard to see a future in which Atkinson doesn’t come away with hardware.
NBA Finals matchup and champion
Mannix: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Boston Celtics (Boston in 7)
The lead Oklahoma City has built in the Western Conference—6½ games ahead of the second-place Houston Rockets—is remarkable. And with Chet Holmgren likely to return sometime after the All-Star break, the Thunder are only going to get better. The Celtics may have to put Kristaps Porzingis in bubble wrap in the second half, but I like Boston’s chances when healthy. And Thunder-Celtics? That’s a seven-game war. Boston’s experience, at least for now, gives it a slight edge.
McKeone: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (Thunder in 6)
The Cavs will almost certainly have to get through the defending champion Celtics for any hope of a championship, which is not an easy task even with how pedestrian the C’s have looked lately. But Cleveland is enjoying the sort of season blessed by the basketball gods that doesn’t appear to have a ceiling. With everything in perfect harmony, there’s a Finals run within arm’s reach. The Thunder are in a class of their own in the West and should finally break through this season. It would be an awesome display of basketball in the Finals. And as the old saying goes, defense wins championships. Cleveland’s defense is great, but OKC’s is historically so and the Thunder get the nod.
First-Half Breakout Star
Mannix: Franz Wagner, Orlando Magic forward
There was some league-wide head scratching when the Magic rewarded Wagner with a max-level extension last summer. He quickly proved worth it, leading the Magic through the Paolo Banchero injury before he went down with one of his own. Still, Wagner’s surge from pretty good player to All-NBA candidate was unexpected, to say the least.
McKeone: Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons point guard
It isn’t a surprise he’s improved from last season now that the Pistons aren’t a complete tire fire. But this kind of leap wasn’t expected. Cunningham is leveling up to superstar status, averaging 24.5 points and 9.4 assists per game as he imposes his will on opposing defenses while more than holding his own on that end. He’s not just making an All-Star case—it would be a downright tragedy if he wasn’t selected, and he should be a starter. Going from good to great is often the hardest bridge for NBA players to gap, and Cunningham is doing so right before our eyes. He’s been the best all-around guard in the East as Detroit basks in the glow of true hope for the first time in many years.
Most Surprising Team
Mannix: Houston Rockets
Yeesh, can Ime Udoka coach or what? The young Rockets have a top-five defense backstopped by the right mix of veterans (Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks) and young stars (Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun). Good health has helped Houston—the Rockets have used just four different starting lineups—that has generated terrific on-court chemistry. The share-the-wealth offense has Houston flirting with the top-10, and they have matured into a solid fourth-quarter team. I expected the Rockets to be better than the .500 team they were last season. Not this much better.
McKeone: Cleveland Cavaliers
They’ve gotten plenty of shine here, but I mean, come on! Who saw this coming? Atkinson is a good coach, Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland are great players, the roster makes sense on paper … there were plenty of reasons to call the Cavs a good team. But there’s a huge gap in believing Cleveland was a contender and what has actually unfolded—a historic start that has led to, in pretty much every regard, a perfect half of a season. Everyone is healthy, everyone is clicking, everyone is smiling. Their shots are falling and the opponent’s shots are rimming out. There are plenty of teams and players who have exceeded expectations this season but none to the degree the Cavs have blown even the highest of hopes out of the dang water.
Most Disappointing Team
Mannix: Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers lavished $212 million on Paul George, tacked another $193 million on to Joel Embiid’s contract and their most consistent player has been Guerschon Yabusele. If the season ended today, Philadelphia wouldn’t be in the play-in tournament. Embiid’s health has been an issue (surprise!), which makes Philly’s decision to extend Embiid with two years left on his contract that much more puzzling. Daryl Morey has his work cut out for him before the Feb. 6 trade deadline.
McKeone: Minnesota Timberwolves
Anthony Edwards’s supposed leap to Face of the NBA slash capital-S Superstar status hasn’t happened. Julius Randle clearly does not fit with how the team is constructed. Mike Conley has fallen off a cliff which has debilitated the offense to a concerning degree, especially in crunch time. The Wolves were one of the best stories in the NBA last season. This season, they’re a complete mess, devoid of any chemistry and rather unpleasant to watch most nights. Perhaps it was telegraphed after the shocking Karl-Anthony Towns trade in September, but Minnesota has been a huge bummer all season long and have a lot of work to do to climb out of the bottom of the Western Conference playoff standings.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as NBA Midseason Predictions: MVP, Coach of the Year, Finals Matchup and More.