College Football Bowl Projections After Week 11

Anyone hoping that the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff wouldn't turn into a complete showcase of the SEC and Big Ten's prowess has had a rough November.

On Saturday, Georgia Tech dealt Miami a devastating 28–23 loss in Atlanta that may have ended the ACC's hopes of getting two teams into the field. That was followed in short order by Kansas's surprising 45–36 upset of Iowa State, which mere weeks ago had designs on a first-round bye.

These events are bad news for anyone hoping to offset the complete stratification of college football along conference lines, but they are good news for those of us in the bowl-projection business. After another intriguing week, here—working off the AP Poll and College Football Reference's Simple Rating System—is a look at how the bowl picture would shape up if the season ended today.

As usual, a string of commentary follows.

Post-Week 11 Bowl Projections For the 2024 College Football Season

Notable Potential Bowl Matchups

Note South Carolina State replacing North Carolina Central as the MEAC's emissary to the Celebration Bowl; it'd be the Bulldogs' first appearance in the game since 2021, when they beat Jackson State 31–10... Georgia Southern joined the Sun Belt in 2014, the year after its potential Frisco Bowl opponent, Western Kentucky, left... Miami-Ohio and Marshall (Boca Raton Bowl) were MAC rivals for many years, most notably from 1997 to 2004 under legendary coaches Randy Walker, Terry Hoeppner and Bob Pruett.

Alabama and Indiana's (CFP first round) meeting would be the Hoosier State's second bowl-equivalent game, joining the national championship between Georgia and the Crimson Tide after the 2021 season... Ole Miss defeated P enn State (CFP first round) 38–25 in the Peach Bowl last season... Toledo is 1-0 all-time against Michigan (Detroit Bowl), having beaten a bad Wolverines team in 2008... Navy and Connecticut (Armed Forces Bowl) were together in the AAC from 2015 to '19... Ditto for Missouri and Texas Tech (Liberty Bowl) in the Big 12, from 1996 to 2011, as well as Texas A&M and Colorado (Las Vegas Bowl) from '96 to 2010... Memphis and Boston College (Fenway Bowl) could have wound up together in a proposed superconference; more on that in a minute... Pittsburgh and Rutgers (Pinstripe Bowl) were BIg East conference-mates from 1991 to 2012... Illinois and Georgia (Citrus Bowl) have never met in football.

Quarterfinal fun to look out for: the Nittany Lions' first meeting with BYU (Fiesta Bowl) since 1992; Notre Dame and Oregon's (Rose Bowl) first meeting since 1982; the Hoosiers' and Texas's (Sugar Bowl) first meeting since 1966... Not only could West Virginia and East Carolina (First Responder) have wound up together in the aforementioned superconference, their matchup would have added juice from the Mountaineers buying out of a 2026 road game against the Pirates... If chalk holds from a seeding standpoint, the Hurricanes and Ducks (Cotton Bowl) have not met since Miami won a 2–0 barnburner in 1958, while the Longhorns and Cougars (Orange Bowl) played last year.