For the fifth consecutive season, the Buffalo Bills find themselves in the divisional round. And for the third consecutive year, they’ll play the role of host.
After dispatching the overwhelmed and outgunned Denver Broncos, 31–7, the Bills will welcome in the third-seeded Baltimore Ravens and two-time MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson. Baltimore easily handled the Pittsburgh Steelers 28–14 on Saturday night, and now the two AFC powers are set for a rematch. The Ravens hammered the Bills 35–10 in Week 4.
But first, let’s run through some key points from Sunday’s tilt, starting with Buffalo’s offense.
The Bills have the most balanced attack in the AFC
Buffalo used to be the Josh Allen show. And while Allen remains the engine of the team’s Super Bowl hopes, he also has a bevy of quality, if not great, skill-position talent.
Against the Broncos, offensive coordinator Joe Brady called a brilliant game, allowing Buffalo to utilize its mauling offensive line to take out the Broncos’ front. The Bills ran the ball 41 times (excluding kneeldowns) while throwing it on 26 occasions, keeping Denver and defensive coordinator Vance Joseph guessing throughout.
And when Allen had to put on his cape, he did so. Leading 13–7 late in the third quarter, Allen found reserve running back Ty Johnson for a sliding 24-yard touchdown grab on fourth-and-1, effectively putting the game out of reach.
If the Bills are going to win their first Super Bowl, it’ll be in large part because of this balance.
Sean Payton and the Broncos have nothing to be down about
The Broncos earned their first playoff berth since 2015 and gave a decent accounting of themselves against a top-tier contender on the road. Denver had some chances across the first three quarters to pull an upset, but receivers dropped passes, Bo Nix missed throws and an inability to get a third- or fourth-down stop ended those hopes.
Going forward, the Broncos should feel good. Nix, the 12th pick in the draft, was maligned by many media types going into the season, and he ended up throwing 29 touchdown passes and played his way into the Offensive Rookie of the Year conversation. Denver also has some other pieces including a good offensive line, receivers Courtland Sutton and Devaughn Vele, and a nasty defense at all three levels.
However, general manager George Paton has to add a few more weapons in the passing game and some explosiveness in the backfield. If he does that, Denver should be right back in the playoff mix next season.
Buffalo won handily, but the defense also had some good fortune
The Bills should be very happy with their performance, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t some things to correct.
Buffalo failed to get pressure throughout on Nix, only hitting him four times while often allowing him to sit in the pocket and scan. The secondary also struggled to cover tightly, with Nix missing a handful of open throws while a few drops, including a key one by Sutton in the first half, helped stop drives.
Against the Ravens, the Bills must clamp down more effectively at the third level. Provided Zay Flowers is healthy next weekend, Baltimore presents a much tougher challenge with fellow wideout Rashod Bateman, and tight ends Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely.
For a deep postseason run, these areas must improve quickly.
This victory sets up a huge moment in Allen’s career
This is the sixth consecutive playoff appearance for Allen and the Bills. In 2019, Buffalo was a lackluster No. 6 seed with no expectations. Since then, the Bills have been an annual contender and for one reason or another, they’ve fallen short, reaching the AFC championship game only once.
Now, Allen is in the midst of a potentially MVP-winning season. He’s avoiding turnovers and still made huge plays, evidenced by his regular-season numbers of 40 total touchdowns against six turnovers.
And, yet, none of it will historically matter if the Bills don’t reach the Super Bowl. Furthermore, should Buffalo fall next weekend against the Ravens, it’ll stir conversation that not only is Allen trailing Patrick Mahomes in this era’s power rankings, but he’s also behind Jackson, who could win his third MVP in the coming weeks.
In the cases of both Jackson and Allen, this is a massive game not only in the obvious sense, but for the prism in which they’re both viewed.
For Allen, it’s not just about winning. It’s about history. Win a Lombardi Trophy and he joins the ranks of the best to ever play. Without one, fair or not, he’ll be seen as a great player with a massive hole on his résumé.
Without an elite quarterback, you have no shot in the AFC
Over the past two years, the AFC has seen Patrick Mahomes, C.J. Stroud, Allen and Jackson as the final four quarterbacks standing.
To take it another step, the past 14 AFC championship games have either had Mahomes and/or Tom Brady participating. And over the past six years, the only quarterback who wasn’t a superstar to play against them in that game was the Tennessee Titans’ Ryan Tannehill, who was blown out in 2019.
For all the AFC teams looking to ascend, this must be the lesson entering the divisional round. In the NFC, middling quarterbacks have a shot to make deep runs because the high-level quarterback play simply is much lower than what we’ve seen on this side of the bracket for years. But in the AFC, a Super Bowl run is almost certainly going to consist of beating multiple future Hall of Fame–level quarterbacks.
And if you don’t have your own, good luck.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Wild-Card Rapid Reaction: Bills Set the Stage for Josh Allen–Lamar Jackson Matchup.