PORTSMOUTH, Va. (WAVY) – U.S. Senator Tim Kaine (D-Virginia) is up 10 points on Republican challenger Hung Cao, 48.5% to 38.5%, in a new poll of Virginia voters from Emerson College.
That’s the margin President Joe Biden beat former President Donald Trump by in the 2020 election in Virginia.
However, that same poll has President Biden now down 2 points in a one-on-one matchup with former President Trump. Biden’s down five points (43% for Trump and 38% for Biden) when third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are factored in.
The poll of 1,000 registered Virginia voters, with a margin of error of 3%, was conducted from July 14-15, after Saturday’s assassination attempt against Trump.
The top issues for those polled were the economy (40%), housing affordability (12%) and immigration (9%), followed by threats to democracy (9%), education (7%), abortion access (6%), healthcare (6%) and crime (6%).
The polling shows a notable number who plan to vote for Kaine don’t plan on voting Biden.
“Eight percent of those voting for Kaine say they plan to vote for Trump, compared to 3% of Cao voters supporting Biden,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Kaine leads his opponent by 27 points among voters in their 30s, while Biden leads Trump by 7 points among these voters.”
Kaine, who’s served in the Senate since 2013, is also up 6.3% on Cao with independents, while Trump is up 8% on Biden with independents, 46% to 38%.
The numbers for Kaine though don’t appear to be an anomaly. Recent polling shows Democratic U.S. Senate candidates are up in seven different battleground states, like Michigan and Wisconsin, while Biden is down to Trump in all of those states.
In Virginia, Biden could however pick up some ground with undecided voters.14.5% of the 396 Democrats polled said they were still undecided but sided 57% for Biden to 43% for Trump when asked who they were leaning toward.
Undecided independents went 56% for Biden compared to 44% to Trump.
The Emerson poll meanwhile also polled voters on a hypothetical matchup between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump is up 2 points in that matchup, 46.7% to 44.5% for Harris. Trump leads Harris by 7 points with independents, while 8.7% said they were still undecided.
Emerson’s polling comes just two days after a poll by Virginia Commonwealth University conducted efore the attempted assassination that showed Trump was up three points on Biden.
Kaine was up 11 points, 49% to 38%, in the VCU poll.
You can read the full Emerson polling data here.