HAMPTON ROADS, Va. (WAVY) — The 2nd Congressional District race is getting tighter, with a Wason Center poll from Christopher Newport University showing incumbent Republican Jen Kiggans leading Democratic challenger Missy Cotter Smasal by a single point as the election season heads to a close.
The 2nd Congressional District in the Commonwealth is a very unusual one.
“It’s very military-centered [and] it’s a heavy military town, and with that, you get a large diversity voters and also beliefs, demographics and so forth,” said political analyst Dr. Eric Claville with Norfolk State University.
Because of its varied demographic, in addition to the redrawing of congressional lines, the district has a history of flipping parties on an almost-regular basis.
“As far as 2009, … the district was held by Glenn Nye, a Democrat, who came in under the Obama wave. And after that, we see where Scott Rigell, a Republican, defeated him and held the seat for roughly eight years, four cycles. And then he was succeeded by Republican Scott Taylor. But then after that, we see where Democrat Elaine Luria came in and unseated him in a highly contested race and very close.”
And we’re seeing a close race again.
Kiggans and Cotter Smasa both have military backgrounds, but offer differing in views in terms of abortion and immigration, which Claville believes will shift the voters one way or another. A Wason Center survey has Kiggans leading by one point as of this week. Claville thinks things can change between the time when people started voting early and Election Day.
“We have October surprises, September Labor Day and we have, running up to election, you have a litany of commercials and advertisings that come out,” Claville said. “Again, it really depends on when those ballots were submitted.”
He sees this district being a battleground for years to come, or until at least the end of the decade. And he said, it’s odd this race is mirroring the presidential race in how close it is. He believes the victor will win by as narrow a margin as 1.2% or 1.5%.
10 On Your Side received statements from both campaigns in response to the tight race.
Cotter Smasal said that “Coastal Virginians are fed up with the chaos and disfunction in Congress and are ready for a change. Our campaign is about supporting our veterans, middle class prosperity, and protecting the right to vote and make our own health care decisions. We have the momentum because Coastal Virginians are ready for real leadership in Congress.”
Meanwhile, Kiggans said that “Southeast Virginians know that Congresswoman Jen Kiggans is their champion in Washington. As a veteran, healthcare provider, and Mother, Congresswoman Kiggans is laser focused on securing America’s success by lowering costs, ending the Biden-Harris border crisis, and fighting for our servicemembers and their families. Jen Kiggans is the right choice for VA-02, which is why voters across the political spectrum will once again vote to elect her on Nov. 5.