EL PASO, Texas (Border Report) – Tougher scrutiny on asylum claims, increased cooperation with local jails and an expanded role for the U.S. Border Patrol and other agencies.

That’s what a border security expert sees coming as President-Elect Donald Trump tries to make good on his campaign promise to close the border to illegal immigration and carry out mass deportations.

Trump has already shown signs he means business by tapping Tom Homan, the former acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE – the agency in charge of removing unauthorized migrants – as his border czar.

“When people hear mass deportations, Middle America thinks Border Patrol. That’s not the case, it’s the Enforcement Removal Operations of ICE,” said Victor M. Manjarrez Jr., a former U.S. Border Patrol chief in El Paso and Tucson, Ariz. “That’s why Tom Homan was selected as border czar. His background is in enforcement and removal operations.”

At least 11 million million undocumented immigrants live in the United States. And before Joe Biden issued an executive order last June curtailing asylum claims between ports of entry, another 2 million people a year were illegally crossing the border from Mexico.

While there are ways Trump can ramp up deportations quickly, the money, personnel and facilities to force a mass exodus are lacking, Manjarrez said.

“The idea of mass deportations – we use that term a lot – people are going to be disappointed (with it). It’s going to be very targeted, very focused,” he said. “If anyone is expecting buses rolling down Interstate 10, I don’t think that’s gong to be the case.”

More expedited removals at the border

Trump can quickly ramp up deportations simply by increasing the number of migrants placed on expedited removal – law-speak for fast-track deportations – right after they cross the border.

“Instead of saying, ‘We’re going to send you to an ICE facility’ for deportation, which is an extended process and involves a judge, the individual can waive that and in essence you can do that at the station,” Manjarrez said. “They usually say they just want to go home and it’s very quick. What is does for the government is it reduces the logistical detail: All those beds, all that transportation.”

The Biden administration for the most part used expedited removals on Mexican citizens, but that could be applied to other nationalities, especially if Trump secures the cooperation of Mexico to temporarily take in foreigners.

“What we’ve seen in the past with Trump, is that Mexico says, ‘We’re not going to do this, we’re not going to do that.’ And, ultimately, they did it very quietly,” Manjarrez said, citing Trump’s threats of imposing tariffs.

Border Patrol, U.S. Marshals to see increased role

When it comes to interior enforcement, Trump will have to ask Congress for more ICE enforcers, detention beds and removal flights to achieve the so-called mass deportations.

“Does ERO have the staffing and personnel to do that? No, they do not have that at this point,” Manjarrez said. But other agencies might.

ICE already is working with the U.S. Marshals Service to transport migrants inside the country and Trump will likely expand on that. But what about more agents? It takes about a year to recruit and train a new ICE agent.

That’s where Manjarrez sees the Border Patrol coming in.

“I believe Border Patrol will have an easier time assigning personnel to do that because the (migrant) flows are already starting to go down. You can’t do that when the flow is huge, but when the flow starts to get slow, you’re not interacting with migrants that are coming in, then you have personnel that you can say, ‘You’re now assigned to interior enforcement.’ That’s where the personnel is going to come from,” Manjarrez said.

The expanded role of the Border Patrol likely will involve guarding migrants being moved to and from detention centers. Also, they could serve as a force multiplier for ERO officers. “You don’t want one person to go into a house, so you can possibly team up with a Border Patrol agent, or a police officer or sheriff (deputies) in areas where they will cooperate,” he said.

County jails an easy target

Local jails could become another cog in Trump’s deportation machine and could help him sell the idea to the American public that he is deporting criminals.

Since at least the Bush administration, most jails have been honoring ICE “detainers” on prisoners believed to be in the country illegally. The detainer designation compels local authorities to notify ICE before releasing that prisoner.

The detainers apply to violent criminals as well as migrants who simply got caught driving drunk, shoplifting or whose wife called the police on them during an argument.

“They will start with the jails and prisons. […] People who have a criminal record in the United States, those are easiest to detain,” Manjarrez said.

The two-time former Border Patrol chief said that despite community concerns he doesn’t believe the Trump administration will engage in door-to-door searches in neighborhoods.

“The next category is people who don’t show up for hearings. They are ordered deported in absentia. There’s already a deportation order and you’re just going to find them. Most have good addresses and now you start knocking on doors with good addresses,” Manjarrez said. “It’s going to be a tiered approach. It’s not gong to be knocking on doors random. It’s going to be very focused and targeted.

“I don’t think it will be a net cast out and they’ll say, ‘We’re going to get everyone.’”

Backlash from Hispanic groups

Several civil rights organizations on Wednesday expressed concerns that Trump’s promise of mass deportations not only will separate families of mixed immigration status and sow fear in Latino communities, but also affect local economies.

“Unchecked power is harmful; unchecked hate is disastrous,” said Areli Hernandez, of the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights (CHIRLA). “In the last (Trump) administration we saw sweeps, we witnessed families coming to (us) because their mom, their dad, their abuelitas (grandmothers) had been picked up. That happened. We saw it.”

Mireya Reith, founding executive director of Arkansas United and a leader in the Fair Immigration Reform Movement Action, said voters that believed in Trump’s promise of a stronger economy will be surprised by the negative effects of a worker shortage.

“It’s not just immigrants affected; it affects communities. If you start deporting workers from chicken farms you affect the fabric of the community. If you think mass deportations are results that will make your constituents happy, you are wrong,” said Reith, the daughter of a Mexican immigrant.

The activists say they are planning a nationwide “Know your rights” campaign for people to learn of available resources to fight a deportation in court. They are also lobbying with President Joe Biden so he will sign executive orders, expand the Temporary Protected Status program or initiate rule changes before he leaves office to protect those in danger of being deported.