Fresh blog here: Follow the latest weather blog from Steve Fundaro at this link. The blog below won’t be updated going forward, though you can get Don Slater’s forecast.

As usual, any solid forecast of snow only seems to come together in the last 24 hours. This first graphic gives a general idea of where the problems with snow are likely to occur.

I’ve put together a more detailed view of where the snow is likely to fall during the day. You will note that with any snow total of 2″ or less, it’s questionable as to whether that snow will survive too long after hitting the ground. The ground is warm and will melt a lot of snow. Additionally, the ground will be wet after having rained for most of the night; that wet ground melts snow, too. With snow totals greater than 2″, there’s a chance that some of that snow will survive on the grass. With amounts in the 4″+ range, snow could even stick to the warm roads.

Before any snow begins, significant rain is likely. Expect rainfall amounts generally in the 2″ to 2.5″ range…and maybe more here and there.

That’s a lot! As that rain falls, the northeast wind will be howling and pushing up the high tide Monday morning. There will be wind gusts around 40 mph most of Monday. There’s also a tornado watch in effect for the Outer Banks until 11 a.m.

With the tide coming UP through the storm sewers…and the heavy rain coming DOWN, there’s nowhere for that rainwater to go. Significant street flooding is entirely possible.

By mid-morning, heavy rain will be the biggest factor. That heavy rain will create scattered street flooding. And when you add that to the aforementioned tidal flooding, water on the ground and roads will be a problem.

By midday and into the afternoon, snow will likely be a problem on the roads in the Williamsburg area and northward. Any snow remaining or water remaining on the roads past sunset could re-freeze for the overnight hours.

Some schools and businesses are closed or delayed for the day due to the weather … and more could change based on their tolerance for conditions.

It’ll just be a nasty day whether we get snow or not!