Tropical Update- Tropical Depression 3 has formed in the Atlantic. Details below.
We just wrapped up a really nice weekend (Saturday and Sunday…not Friday). Many people are off today for Juneteenth. The weather still looks pretty good, but it will be much warmer and more humid.
Highs will be in the mid-upper 80s in our region. The extreme heat will continue across the Deep South.
We have an area of high pressure to our north, but it is rising slowly to the north. There is an area of low pressure to our southeast, and there is another one to our southwest.
We’ll have quiet weather today, but some isolated showers may pop up later this afternoon as the humidity rises. The dry weather from the weekend is getting filtered out. Now the dew points are in the upper 60s.
We’ll have a south/southeast wind at 5-10mph. This will keep increasing the humidity, and it will push up those temps.
Tomorrow the low pressure area will be a little closer to our region. The front will also rise a bit more to the north. However, the wind will be more off of the water. It will run out of the east at 10-15mph. This will keep temps down a bit. That and the extra cloud cover will keep high temps to near 80 degrees. There may even be some upper 70s. We’ll catch a few rain showers coming in off of the ocean.
This could impact some of the voters heading to the polls to vote, but the chance for rain isn’t huge. It is higher just to our west and southwest.
The models have trended wetter for Wednesday. We are going to have that area of low pressure very close to our region. There could be some heavy rain for a while as well.
This low will likely move very slowly. It’s possible that we could get some flooding in the area. At least in some isolated places. Rain showers are expected to continue on and off through at least Friday.
The GFS model is estimating 1-3″ of rain for our region through that time with 3-5″ just to our west.
It seems to me that this is underestimating the rain compared to how long it keeps the rain going. Remember though that number will be spread out from Tuesday through Friday. So we’ll see how we fare. Some areas had heavy rain and flooding last Friday, but not everybody. So there are some folks that are looking forward to the upcoming rain. It’s too early to talk about next weekend as I already have a low confidence in the Thursday-Friday time-frame.
Things are happening in the tropics. There is a tropical depression or storm forming right now over the central Atlantic.
(Update: It’s official…Tropical Depression 3 has formed in the Atlantic. It is on a westerly track for now.
The forecast has it quite a bit west towards the “consensus”, but there are many models (see below) that have it taking more of a right turn. As mentioned by the National Hurricane Center. This will depend on the strength of the storm. A strong storm will bend more to the north with a weaker system going west. There is a lot of uncertainty in the track right now as it has just formed. The info below is from the earlier blog, but still stands.
It is moving to the west/northwest. The water is very warm down that way. So there is a good potential for some strengthening.
However, I believe it will encounter some increasing wind shear. So that could keep the system fairly weak. The GFS and European models do have it becoming a system, but the Euro keeps it very weak, and it has it going more west. The GFS model hooks it north in a few days, but is stronger and more organized.
The good news is that the GFS scenario would likely keep it out to sea. The latest models have a pretty big spread in the track, but a lot of them favor keeping it offshore.
It is still forming. So we’ll have more confidence it its forecast over the next day or two. We have plenty of time to watch it.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler