Blog: Good Father’s Day weather. Watching the tropics.

Posted: Jun 18, 2023 / 08:39 AM EDT

Updated: Jun 18, 2023 / 10:24 PM EDT

Yesterday’s weather was really nice! We had fair skies through the day with highs in the 80s. It was nice and dry. There was a bit of a breeze at times. Today we are looking great for this Father’s Day! High pressure has moved into the region. We have a stationary front far to our south. There is an area of low pressure over the Northeast. There is another low over the lower Mississippi River Valley.

We’ll have lots of sun today locally with dry air. Dew points are down in the 50s. Enjoy it while it lasts, because the humidity will be going way up soon.

High temps will run up in the mid 80s today.

We’ll have a light north/northeast breeze.

The beach forecast looks good today too for the dads that may be heading to the beach. (like myself).

Tomorrow the weather looks decent for Juneteenth. We’ll be partly cloudy through the day. However, moisture will start increasing. As we get the heating of the day, we may have an isolated shower or two popping up. High temps will be in the mid-upper 80s.

The extreme heat will continue over parts of the Deep South. Look at Dallas and New Orleans. Those are just the temps. The heat index could be up to 110 over some cities down there.

Around here we’ll have similar weather (to today) on Tuesday for Election day. HOWEVER, the models are a little split as as to the rain chances. The GFS and our Future Trak model have only some spotty showers in the region with more to our south. Though they do have more rain by tomorrow evening.

The NAM model on other hand has quite a bit of rain over the whole region for most of the day. It has the upper level low on top of us while the other two keep it more to the southwest. For now I have the lower rain chance in southeast Virginia with a higher chance for scattered showers or northeast North Carolina. High temps will be in the 80s either way.

So I’ve been talking about this for days…The forecast for the second half of next week has been bouncing around like crazy. The models have had areas of low pressure zipping around, stalling out, near the coast, inland. The latest is that they tend to have a surface low just to our south with a stationary front just to our south as well. There is an upper level low nearby, but the placement is very different. The bottom line is this: The rain chances will be higher for the second half of the week into the weekend. It could range from a few showers each day to a near washout on some of the days. Here is the GFS and Euro models on Thursday.

This is not from a tropical system, but there will be some tropical moisture in the region.

Having said that. There is a feature in the eastern Atlantic that has a high chance of formation over the next couple of days.

This is forecast to form into a tropical depression or storm soon. Then it will move generally west for a couple of days. There is some very warm water across the central Atlantic. It is running at least a couple of degrees above average.

The GFS model has the system forming, but staying way out to sea in several days. The Euro has a more southern track towards the Lesser Antilles, but it keeps is very weak through that time.