Tropical storm Debby is creating more flooding across parts of the Southeast. Yesterday, heavy rain created several areas of bad flooding. Over the last 48 hours some locations between Florida and South Carolina have had over 10 inches of rainfall.

Debby has moved back over the water. This morning it meandered off the coast of South Carolina.

There weren’t many storms or even rain showers around the center for a while. This was a sign that the storm has basically maintained its strength, but it hasn’t really gotten stronger either. There were some gusts to 30mph near the shore, but those winds stretched all the way up to Hatteras. So this system almost felt like it was subtropical.

Debby is forecast to move to the north/northwest over the next 12-18 hours. This is due to a strengthening high pressure system offshore and sliding west a bit. This should take Debby back over land.

Once that happens it should weaken again. There is also some dry air that may wrap into the southern part of the storm. The latest forecast calls for Debby to move to the north/northwest. This should allow it to track closer to central and western Virginia and North Carolina. Debby should weaken to a depression and then a post-tropical low during the day Friday as it passes well to our west.

Then it will quickly jet off to the northeast as it wraps into a cold front. The latest models are now in fairly good agreement as to the track over the next 3 days.

Keep in mind that is the track of the center of the storm. However, the rain and wind will stretch far from the center. Lets take a look at Future Trak during that time. First, here’s the wide view on Thursday and Friday.

The heaviest rain is, therefore, forecast to be to our west.

Locally, I think we are looking at about 2-5 inches of rain with locally higher amounts. However, that rain should be spread out over 2-3 days. So our flooding should be isolated to scattered compared to areas to our west and southwest. Having said that, there is a flood watch in effect from this evening through Friday evening for most of the region.

Let’s take a closer look at our local area. Future Trak shows several bands of showers and storms coming up from the south between midday and the early evening.

We’ll be cloudy all day. High temps will be in the low-mid 80s, but temps may fall to the upper 70s if the rain is heavy enough. There is a very low chance of the storms becoming severe. Tomorrow as Debby get more north, some of our local rain bands could have a little more umph to them. A few of these could happen in the morning, but the storms are more likely in the afternoon.

There will be a little more energy in the storms. Also surface winds will be stronger. They will gust up to 25mph. Maybe a few to 30mph.

Some of the gusts may reach up to 40mph over the Outer Banks up to southern Virginia Beach. So some of the storms may contain even stronger gusty winds. However, Isolated tornadoes will also be possible.

The storms may decrease for a time Thursday evening. On Friday as Debby passes to our west a wind shift may create a line of showers and storms. This line is forecast (by Future Trak) to pass through Hampton Roads between the late morning and early afternoon.

This will probably be the last of the heavy rain. Then drier air will move in from the west. However, the cold front won’t move through behind the low right away. It is forecast to actually move through on Saturday. That means that there will be some more scattered showers on Saturday. Hopefully, they are only in the morning and much lighter. Then we should be drier during the late afternoon. High temps will mainly be in the 80s through that time. We’ll definitely be drier on Sunday.

The tides overall should be normal. The storm should pass well to our west. Also, the winds aren’t conducive for elevated tides on the Bay. However, the persistent south/southeast wind could create some minor tidal flooding on the north end of the Albemarle sound up to southern Virginia Beach. This would include the Elizabeth City and Knotts Island areas. Stay tune for updates on that.

So, on the whole, our local area should be fine overall. There may be a few problems with flooding and severe weather, but they should be limited to a few areas.

One thing I didn’t focus on is the waves. Waves will be pretty big over the Outer Banks. There will be rough surf and a high threat for rip currents up and down the beaches. So swimming is not recommended for at least 2-3 days.

We’ll have plenty of updates on the active weather over the next couple of days.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler