Today we will start to see some changes in the local weather pattern. We had a good amount of rain over the region over the last couple of days, but the amounts did vary quite a bit.
By far the highest amount was around Smithfield, Virginia with reports of 5-6 inches in north/central Isle of Wight County. There was a lot of deep/rich moisture over our region over the last 3-4 days. Over the last 2 days there was also a stationary front on top of us. Add to that an upper level disturbance coming in off of the ocean, and this all caused the recent heavy rain and storms.
Today there is still some muggy conditions, but the moisture is not as deep as it was. The upper level disturbance is gone, and the stationary front has fallen apart.
So we started this morning with no rainfall which was great! As we go through the day there will be some scattered showers and storms forming. Mainly this afternoon and evening.
The models backed off of the coverage compared to yesterday, but there could be a few heavy showers. Rain amounts will vary widely. Winds will turn to out of the north/northeast at 5-15mph. High temps will be in the low-mid 80s. A few more showers and storms will continue into the evening, but then we’ll dry out overnight. Low temps will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.
We’ll be drier tomorrow as the front stalls out to our south. We’ll be partly cloudy. There may be some isolated showers, but it’s a low chance. High temps will be near 80. It will be more comfortable as the dew points drop to the 60s. We’ll have a northeast breeze at 10-15mph with a few gusts to 20mph. We’ll be partly cloudy on Sunday with a few pm showers possible. High temps will be in the 80s. Early next week we’ll have some nice cool/dry air move into the region. High temps will be in the upper 70s to near 80 Tuesday and Wednesday.
Low temps will be in the 60s and possibly the 50s.
Now onto the tropics. There is a lot to talk about. First off…There is a weak disturbance west of Florida that has a very low chance of formation. It is moving west off the Gulf coast. However, there is another one that is east of the southern Florida. This one has a decent chance of forming into a tropical depression or storm in a couple of days as it rolls west into the Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical storm Paulette is in the central Atlantic. It is on a west/northwest track. In a few days it will approach Bermuda as a hurricane. The latest forecast has it as a category 2 by that time.
The latest models and forecast have it moving to the northeast by Tuesday, and then moving over the cooler waters of the central Atlantic. While it looks like it will stay well offshore, there will be some high waves around the system. Some of these swells will travel to the east coast. Some of the nearshore waves could be around 7-9ft according to our model. So we’ll see how high the waves are that reach the shore. It might be some great surf, but the rip current threat would likely be high.
Tropical storm Rene seemed very weak this morning on satellite. It almost looked like it fell apart.
The wind shear is decent over the system, and this should inhibit strengthening for the next 5 days. If it holds together, then it will move northwest for 3-4 days. However, by day 5 the system could meander around for a bit as high pressure builds to the north.
It’s possible that it could move back west. Could it make the long-haul and head towards the United States? It’s possible, but not likely. We’ll have updates on it over the weekend.
There are actually two tropical disturbances coming off of Africa. The one that is south/southwest of the Cabo Verde island is forecast to become a tropical system soon. It has a very high chance. So that would possibly become Sally if the forecast comes to fruition.
It’s likely that we’ll tap into the Greek alphabet for names this year.
As the headline suggests the West is on fire. This is a record year for wildfires, and almost the entire western half of the country is affected by either fire, smoke, or poor air quality.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler
