Monday Afternoon Update:
Another soggy week of weather will unfold across Hampton Roads as the tropical moisture from Debby crawls up the East Coast.

Now through Wednesday:
Gray, gloomy and muggy with scattered showers and downpours. Tuesday should be dry for most of the day until the afternoon and evening bring scattered showers and downpours. These will lead us into a soggier day Wednesday, with scattered showers and downpours for most of the day. Rain could be heavier for NENC and the Outer Banks, where flooding of low-lying areas is possible.

Thursday & Friday:
Breezy with showers and downpours around — there could be a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms that we’ll have to look out for. In addition, tidal flooding in the Albemarle Sound and southern Virginia Beach could be possible depending on how strong the southeast winds are later this week.

Fortunately, by the weekend, what’s left of Debby could really pick up speed and move out of town quickly. Sunday and most of next week brings sunshine lower humidity!

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I’ll talk about Debby first, then I’ll cover our local weather. Now tropical storm Debby made landfall as a hurricane this morning around 7 a.m. near Steinhatchee, Florida.

There was a lot of heavy rain over a large portion of Florida. Wind gusts down there were over 80mph. They had a storm surge of several feet.

Today the system will move slowly north/northeast over land. It will weaken to a tropical storm probably by midday. There is a good amount of confidence in the short-term forecast. It is expected to move northeast/east today into tomorrow. The model consensus and the official forecast then takes it back over the water (Atlantic coast) by late Tuesday.

After that point there is a LOT of uncertainty. The official forecast has it generally tracking north, but look at how big the cone of uncertainty is.

The reason for this is 1. The upper level winds, a.k.a the steering currents, will drop off to pretty much nothing in the next 12-24 hours. 2. A cool front is forecast to drop south and interact with Debby. And 3. The models handle the tracks differently anyway, but especially the environment around any tropical systems.

Here are the latest forecast models:

It looks a lot like the big plate of spaghetti scene from the movie Lady and the Tramp. Anyway, so yes…There is a lot of uncertainty. To summarize it a little. Take a look at the difference between the GFS model and the European model. Over the next couple of days they both take it east over the Atlantic coast. The Euro is a bit more north and stronger than the GFS.

Then the GFS takes it to the west and weakens it considerably during the next few days. Meanwhile the Euro meanders it to the north/northeast.

This brings it closer to our region, but it does weaken the system by that time. The good news is that neither model has it as a strong system up this way. The differences in the tracks have a big effect on the rainfall forecast. Take a look at the different solutions from the GFS and Euro.

My latest thinking is that we’ll have a lot of moisture up in our region whether Debby gets close or stays south. However, there would definitely be more rain with a closer solution. Regardless, they are currently expecting the heaviest rainfall over South Carolina. The National Hurricane Center estimates UP TO 30″ of rainfall across the coast of South Carolina.

So stay tuned for updates to the forecast. I think now that Debby has made landfall that the forecast will now to start to coalesce in the next 24 hours.

Meanwhile, our local weather should be quieter today compared to yesterday. Yesterday we had strong storms in the region. There was a water spout that did some damage as it moved over land over the Outer Banks. During the late afternoon and early evening then there were several clusters of showers and storms that developed.

There were few damage reports from those storms.

There was a stationary front just to our southwest. So that may have contributed to the stronger storms and higher coverage. However, that front has since fallen apart. Now we have high pressure offshore, Debby over Florida, and a cool front over the Midwest.

We’ll have a mix of sun and clouds today. There will be a few showers and storms during the afternoon, but the coverage should be less than yesterday.

Having said that, there could be some isolated downpours. These should fall apart by the evening. High temps will make it to near 90 degrees.

The heat index will be near 100. We’ll have a light southwest wind.

Tomorrow we’ll have similar weather, but high temps will be more in the upper 80s. Then as we go into Wednesday through Friday the clouds and rain chances will increase. Again, this is due to the forecast of higher moisture in the region. At least the high temps should be mainly cooler. They will be in the low-mid 80s for a couple of days.

Keep in mind that that part of the forecast could change if Debby’s track changes. The all-around 7-day forecast may look a lot different within the next 48 hours. So check back for updates.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler